The Slippery Slope

I really appreciate Taylor Harris's concern (via) for the sensibilities of religious believers. I'm sure he feels exactly the same way about the devout Christians who opposed the Civil Rights Movement because of their sincere, scripture-based conviction that God intended the races to be separate. Yet these fine people were demonized as "racists," "bigots," "rednecks," and the like. And the definition of American was changed from white to any damn color you please. You can see the decline since then. It may be too late to repair the damage now, but at least we can draw a line in the sand over sodomitical marriage and say, "No pasaran!"

But ... just a thought. Didn't the trouble really start when the Christians forcibly changed the definition of religion in the Roman Empire from polytheism to monotheism? And probably at about the same time, changed the definition of marriage from polygamous to monogamous? Or maybe it was when the Phoenicians changed the definition of writing from syllabic or hieroglyphic to alphabetic, thus allowing the common people to achieve literacy more easily? You can see how the quality of literary production has dropped since then.

Or maybe it was when the first mitosis changed the definition of life from one-celled to many-celled? Some will try to tell you, "The individual cells that make up our bodies are still alive, and the majority of organisms are single-celled. Multicellular lifeforms are just a particular organization. Hive organisms of eusocial animals (freqently haplodiploid) are a scaled up analogy." Don't be fooled! That's what the militant recruiting multicellular organisms would like you to believe: that they're really no different from one-celled organisms, and that multicellularism is an "alternative lifestyle" no different from any other. From that first fateful mitosis it was only a few million years to meiosis and sexual reproduction, and just look where it's gotten us.

(image credit; via)

The Slippery Slope

I really appreciate Taylor Harris's concern (via) for the sensibilities of religious believers. I'm sure he feels exactly the same way about the devout Christians who opposed the Civil Rights Movement because of their sincere, scripture-based conviction that God intended the races to be separate. Yet these fine people were demonized as "racists," "bigots," "rednecks," and the like. And the definition of American was changed from white to any damn color you please. You can see the decline since then. It may be too late to repair the damage now, but at least we can draw a line in the sand over sodomitical marriage and say, "No pasaran!"

But ... just a thought. Didn't the trouble really start when the Christians forcibly changed the definition of religion in the Roman Empire from polytheism to monotheism? And probably at about the same time, changed the definition of marriage from polygamous to monogamous? Or maybe it was when the Phoenicians changed the definition of writing from syllabic or hieroglyphic to alphabetic, thus allowing the common people to achieve literacy more easily? You can see how the quality of literary production has dropped since then.

Or maybe it was when the first mitosis changed the definition of life from one-celled to many-celled? Some will try to tell you, "The individual cells that make up our bodies are still alive, and the majority of organisms are single-celled. Multicellular lifeforms are just a particular organization. Hive organisms of eusocial animals (freqently haplodiploid) are a scaled up analogy." Don't be fooled! That's what the militant recruiting multicellular organisms would like you to believe: that they're really no different from one-celled organisms, and that multicellularism is an "alternative lifestyle" no different from any other. From that first fateful mitosis it was only a few million years to meiosis and sexual reproduction, and just look where it's gotten us.

(image credit; via)

Department of Unintentional Irony?

Homo Superior Curates the Web quoted the closing paragraph of last Thursday's post, and credited it thusly:

Department of Back-Handed Compliments or How To Blog When Your Ego is Too Big to Allow Comments

I'm still not going to enable comments, for reasons I've given before, which I don't think have anything to do with my big, big ego. (Size queen!) I do confess to being so contrary that people trying to shame me into enabling comments just gets my back up more. But -- funny thing. I can't find any provision at Homo Superior Curates the Web for comments, or even contact information for e-mail.

(image credit)

Department of Unintentional Irony?

Homo Superior Curates the Web quoted the closing paragraph of last Thursday's post, and credited it thusly:

Department of Back-Handed Compliments or How To Blog When Your Ego is Too Big to Allow Comments

I'm still not going to enable comments, for reasons I've given before, which I don't think have anything to do with my big, big ego. (Size queen!) I do confess to being so contrary that people trying to shame me into enabling comments just gets my back up more. But -- funny thing. I can't find any provision at Homo Superior Curates the Web for comments, or even contact information for e-mail.

(image credit)

Gold Miners Making More Money?





Mining is a tough business and profits are rarely easy to come by. I learned the concept of the "real" price of Gold from Bob Hoye at Institutional Advisors. This concept ignores the nominal price of Gold (i.e. ignores the currency effect, which is difficult for paperbugs but easy for long term Gold bulls) and focuses on the price of Gold relative to the price of other commodities as a ratio. Mr. Hoye has his own proprietary index, but as we all stand on the shoulders of giants before us, I use my own proxy of this ratio by dividing the Gold price by other commodities indices (I typically use the Continuous Commodities Index [$CCI]).

When the ratio of the Gold price divided by a basket of commodities is rising, the "real" price is rising. This is irrespective of the nominal price. In other words, the price of Gold in U.S. Dollars could be falling while the "real" price is rising. The concept is a valid and important concept for two reasons.

First, wealth is relative. If Gold goes to $2000/oz but oil goes to $10,000 per barrel, then Gold investors are poorer if they need to use energy/in energy terms. Deflation in Gold terms has been here for a decade - it is only when paper currency is introduced into the equation that things get confusing. Let's say Gold starts today at around $1175/oz and a house in your neighborhood costs $200,000 today. In a year, if Gold falls to $800/oz (not saying it will) and the house in your neighborhood costs $100,000 at that time are you richer or poorer? Well, both! In nominal terms, you are poorer. In other words, if your main goal in life is to accumulate as many pieces of paper issued by the unconstitutional, non-federal, for-profit federal reserve corporation, you are poorer. However, if your main goal is to buy a house some day, you are wealthier in this scenario.

As a strong believer in Gold during the Kondratieff Winter cycle that we have entered (it ain't over yet, trust me), I believe paper currencies will also deflate relative to Gold rather than gain value relative to Gold as people like Bob Prechter think. It's a subtle but important investing concept when one looks over the longer term horizon and tries to protect wealth. Because I believe the deflationary forces in the economy are strong, I believe it is possible that U.S. Dollars can be significantly devalued and yet gain in value relative to real estate and general stocks. But holders of any of these asset classes I believe will lose wealth in Gold terms.

In other words, I believe Gold will buy more paper federal reserve notes (i.e. nominal price of Gold will rise), more real estate and more general stocks in the future. This is not a mainstream concept, as it gets to the core of what true money is likely to be this cycle during the continued economic and debt storms the global economy is facing. Confidence in the U.S. system and its central bankstaz will decrease further as this secular economic crisis proceeds. This is why creditor central banks of the world are now net buyers of Gold - they want to take their excess paper reserves and convert them into a reliable store of wealth.

Such a trend change by central bankstaz in buying Gold is not a brief blip. This is not a "get rich quick" trading scheme happening here. This is a secular shift that will continue for some time to come in my opinion. China is not telling their population to buy silver and Gold and making it easy for them to do so because they want their people to lose their hard earned money. Accumulation of U.S. Dollars over the longer term is now seen as relatively unwise. You may buy this concept or not, and it is not they key point of this discussion.

The second reason the concept of the "real" price of Gold is important relates to the Gold miners. Producing Gold miners can make more money when expenses are decreasing relative to the price of Gold, regardless of what the price of Gold is doing in nominal terms. Like the Wal Mart model, you can cut prices and make higher profits as long as your costs are falling even faster than prices are. The most obvious component of the cost equation is energy, as mining is an energy intensive business. If Gold drops 30% but oil drops 70% (like last fall, for example), Gold miners can make higher profit margins (again, all things being equal, which they are not for individual firms). Higher profit margins can translate into higher profits, which can (not does, but can) translate into higher dividends and/or higher stock prices.

Now, this concept can be attacked and is not fool proof but it gets to the heart of how Gold miners make money. This is why a deflationary environment is more consistently bullish for Gold miners than an inflationary one. Think of the 2007 to early 2008 period when oil was going ballistic - even though the Gold price was rising beautifully towards $1000/oz, oil was rising even faster and further and many Gold miners were unable to increase profits during this time. During a secular credit contraction (again think in Gold terms, not in terms of paper currency units), commodity prices fall relative to the Gold price over long periods of time.

Recent short term action has been bullish for the Gold miners in this regard. Here's a 2 year weekly candlestick chart of the Gold price divided by the CCI commodity index ($CCI):



If this is an early stage rise in this ratio (I think it is, but only Mr. Market knows for sure), it is bullish for the fundamental underpinnings of a significant continuation of the new cyclical Gold stock bull market that began in late 2008. Again, this is fundamental data, not a trading signal. In fact, the lag between a rising Gold:$CCI ratio and rising Gold stock prices can be significant and ironically, a ratio of Gold to oil or a basket of commodities is often rising at a time when the stock market is not doing very well. Gold stock charts should be evaluated and traded based on their own technicals, not based on the chart of the Gold to commodities ratio. However, a rise in this key Gold ratio indicates that the fundamentals for Gold stocks are improving. Because investors are forward looking, it also suggests that fundamentally, Gold in the ground for Gold explorers and developers may be valued higher based on its higher profit potential.

When looking over the longer term, one can see that the secular turn in the Gold:$CCI ratio occurred in the 2001 time frame and appreciate just how big a move happened in the Gold to $CCI ratio in 2008 (20 year monthly log scale candlestick chart of $GOLD:$CCI follows):



The massive spike that occurred in this ratio during the Great Fall Panic of 2008 (which the feds and government were unable to prevent despite all their market intervention leading up to this point) has not yet been fully priced into the Gold miners. If it was, major Gold mining indices would be at significant new all-time highs. If this ratio can maintain at current lofty levels (let alone go higher, which I think it will) for the next few months, I believe the Gold mining sector is going to have a volcanic explosion to the upside in 2010 regardless of what the general stock market does.

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Political Correctness Run Amok


Eighty-four percent of people think Political Correctness has gone mad, and you don't want one of those people coming up to you after a gig and going, "Well done, mate! ... Y'know, you can't even write racial abuse in excrement on someone's car without the Politically Correct Brigade jumping down your throat."
I've been meaning to put this clip up here for a few days now. (Via Lenin's Tomb, with thanks.) I'd thought that Political Correctness had mostly dropped out of use, until a recent e-mail exchange with an old acqaintance who used it, denied that he used it anymore, and then defended at length his use of it; so I appreciated Stewart Lee's satirical take. Except for the final punchline, which I still think misses the mark, and was debated at length in comments. Political Correctness has gone mad, Stew!

Political Correctness Run Amok


Eighty-four percent of people think Political Correctness has gone mad, and you don't want one of those people coming up to you after a gig and going, "Well done, mate! ... Y'know, you can't even write racial abuse in excrement on someone's car without the Politically Correct Brigade jumping down your throat."
I've been meaning to put this clip up here for a few days now. (Via Lenin's Tomb, with thanks.) I'd thought that Political Correctness had mostly dropped out of use, until a recent e-mail exchange with an old acqaintance who used it, denied that he used it anymore, and then defended at length his use of it; so I appreciated Stewart Lee's satirical take. Except for the final punchline, which I still think misses the mark, and was debated at length in comments. Political Correctness has gone mad, Stew!

Martin Armstrong May Need Your Help





See this link from Nathan's Economic Edge (a great site) for info and details:

http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/11/martin-armstong-forced-to-move-to-high.html

Please help if you can spare a few minutes. If you don't know who Martin Armstrong is, he is basically a financial and market whiz and market and economic historian into cycles and cycle theory. You can read some of his many articles here.

The bottom line is that he is a victim of the system and his voice is an important one for those seeking to learn more about markets, regardless of what you think of him personally.

Thanks in advance!

GoldSeek.com provides you with the information to make the right decisions on your AU 5 Day investments

Indian Country

I'm listening to Earthsongs, a program of Native American music that airs each Sunday morning on our local community radio station. (There's also a locally-produced program an hour earlier, which is now run by the Native American student organization at the university. I've been listening to both of these for several years now.) This week's guest is the Muskogee poet Joy Harjo, my almost exact contemporary, whose work I've encountered here and there over the years. I liked the first books of hers I read, She Had Some Horses and The Woman Who Fell from the Sky, but the third, A Map to the Next World, was full of pomposity, racial stereotyping, and bad writing. Harjo is also a musician, with several albums out, and on the program she sang, unaccompanied, a new song she was working on. It included the following line:

Remember that a nation is a person with a soul ...

This is fascist nationalist crap, and I'm using "fascist" carefully and deliberately. A nation is an invented abstraction, an "imagined community" as the political theorist Benedict Anderson famously dubbed it. The corporate (from the Latin word for 'body') concept of nationhood (or of any group of people, like a religion) is highly dangerous and must at best be balanced by an emphasis on the individual members of the body; otherwise individuals become mere cells to brushed off like dandruff when they're no longer needed. It can't even be defended as a specifically Native cultural heritage, since it has been a feature of modern European nationalism as well, which reached its epitome in blood-and-soil fascism in Europe and elsewhere.

Harjo then explained to the host of Earthsongs:

We were a hundred percent of the people in what is now America, and now we're one percent.


Hey, Joy, I know what you mean -- that's why so many Euro-Americans are worried about our demographics, what will happen to our gene pool if we let in too many "immigrants" -- we remember what happened to you guys when you let illegal immigrants swarm onto your shores! No doubt the first wave of people who came into the western hemisphere tens of thousands of years ago felt the same way about the later waves of foreigners, though we'll never know. (One of the benefits of oral, traditional culture is that it erases the past into an eternal present.) Harjo referred to other minorities in the US, such as Asian-Americans, but I don't think she's really thought about what she said today.

In saying this, I am neither denying nor minimizing the genocide of the American Indian by European invaders. But even accepting the largest estimates of the pre-Columbian population of the western hemisphere, the floods of Europeans and others from the eastern hemisphere who then bred like rabbits are also responsible in large part for the fact that Indians are no longer one hundred percent of the population here. Harjo is veering into nativism here.

Which may have something to do with the increase I've noticed of a familiar style of American patriotism among Native American artists and speakers over the past several years, an insistent claim to be, like, Americans. The latter, to an anti-essentialist like me is just fine, as an appropriation of the invaders' label. (I wish I really believed that was the intention behind the tendency.) The patriotism part, not so much. It's like the "gay American" trope in which the Human Rights Campaign advised Jim McGreevy to drape himself when he was in political trouble. (Patriotism is, as always, the first refuge of scoundrels.) The Cree singer Buffy Sainte-Marie, for instance, famous for her songs attacking the European invasion of the Americas and its consequences (which led to her being blacklisted by the Johnson and Nixon administrations), has recorded "America the Beautiful" for her new album. She wrote some new verses for it, and told Amy Goodman the other day on Democracy Now!,
It’s about America the country, not America the nation state. It’s about the real America that so many people, regardless of their political associations, really feel in their hearts—you know, this beautiful, beautiful place. So, it’s yet another take on “America the Beautiful.” People seem to enjoy it.
Of course, America is not a country, and never was. It's a large landmass which had many peoples, languages, cultures in it before the European invasion; the United States of America is just one country among many, and it's an annoyance to people in those other countries when their existence disappears when "America" refers only to the big bully of the upper portion. Earlier in the same interview, Sainte-Marie referred carefully to "the North American public," but now she forgot that there's a lot more to the America than the USA. (Even speaking of "the North American public," perhaps because she was born in Canada and still has ties there, seems to lump in Mexico, which has a different history. Ethnocentrism is hard to avoid, even for the indigenous.)

But I digress. Back to Joy Harjo, who also said on Earthsongs:

We have a lot of veterans, people going over there to defend our country.

It's true, and should not be forgotten, that American Indians have contributed substantially to the body count of the American war machine, much as other oppressed groups have done, to the present day. But I guess I have to keep repeating, American forces "over there" in Iraq and Afghanistan are not "defending our country" -- they are attacking other countries. I wonder if Harjo talked the same way during the Vietnam era? (Subject for future research.) I don't see how anyone can deplore the US treatment of the Indians while being so complacent about US aggression against other peoples.

(image credit)

Indian Country

I'm listening to Earthsongs, a program of Native American music that airs each Sunday morning on our local community radio station. (There's also a locally-produced program an hour earlier, which is now run by the Native American student organization at the university. I've been listening to both of these for several years now.) This week's guest is the Muskogee poet Joy Harjo, my almost exact contemporary, whose work I've encountered here and there over the years. I liked the first books of hers I read, She Had Some Horses and The Woman Who Fell from the Sky, but the third, A Map to the Next World, was full of pomposity, racial stereotyping, and bad writing. Harjo is also a musician, with several albums out, and on the program she sang, unaccompanied, a new song she was working on. It included the following line:

Remember that a nation is a person with a soul ...

This is fascist nationalist crap, and I'm using "fascist" carefully and deliberately. A nation is an invented abstraction, an "imagined community" as the political theorist Benedict Anderson famously dubbed it. The corporate (from the Latin word for 'body') concept of nationhood (or of any group of people, like a religion) is highly dangerous and must at best be balanced by an emphasis on the individual members of the body; otherwise individuals become mere cells to brushed off like dandruff when they're no longer needed. It can't even be defended as a specifically Native cultural heritage, since it has been a feature of modern European nationalism as well, which reached its epitome in blood-and-soil fascism in Europe and elsewhere.

Harjo then explained to the host of Earthsongs:

We were a hundred percent of the people in what is now America, and now we're one percent.


Hey, Joy, I know what you mean -- that's why so many Euro-Americans are worried about our demographics, what will happen to our gene pool if we let in too many "immigrants" -- we remember what happened to you guys when you let illegal immigrants swarm onto your shores! No doubt the first wave of people who came into the western hemisphere tens of thousands of years ago felt the same way about the later waves of foreigners, though we'll never know. (One of the benefits of oral, traditional culture is that it erases the past into an eternal present.) Harjo referred to other minorities in the US, such as Asian-Americans, but I don't think she's really thought about what she said today.

In saying this, I am neither denying nor minimizing the genocide of the American Indian by European invaders. But even accepting the largest estimates of the pre-Columbian population of the western hemisphere, the floods of Europeans and others from the eastern hemisphere who then bred like rabbits are also responsible in large part for the fact that Indians are no longer one hundred percent of the population here. Harjo is veering into nativism here.

Which may have something to do with the increase I've noticed of a familiar style of American patriotism among Native American artists and speakers over the past several years, an insistent claim to be, like, Americans. The latter, to an anti-essentialist like me is just fine, as an appropriation of the invaders' label. (I wish I really believed that was the intention behind the tendency.) The patriotism part, not so much. It's like the "gay American" trope in which the Human Rights Campaign advised Jim McGreevy to drape himself when he was in political trouble. (Patriotism is, as always, the first refuge of scoundrels.) The Cree singer Buffy Sainte-Marie, for instance, famous for her songs attacking the European invasion of the Americas and its consequences (which led to her being blacklisted by the Johnson and Nixon administrations), has recorded "America the Beautiful" for her new album. She wrote some new verses for it, and told Amy Goodman the other day on Democracy Now!,
It’s about America the country, not America the nation state. It’s about the real America that so many people, regardless of their political associations, really feel in their hearts—you know, this beautiful, beautiful place. So, it’s yet another take on “America the Beautiful.” People seem to enjoy it.
Of course, America is not a country, and never was. It's a large landmass which had many peoples, languages, cultures in it before the European invasion; the United States of America is just one country among many, and it's an annoyance to people in those other countries when their existence disappears when "America" refers only to the big bully of the upper portion. Earlier in the same interview, Sainte-Marie referred carefully to "the North American public," but now she forgot that there's a lot more to the America than the USA. (Even speaking of "the North American public," perhaps because she was born in Canada and still has ties there, seems to lump in Mexico, which has a different history. Ethnocentrism is hard to avoid, even for the indigenous.)

But I digress. Back to Joy Harjo, who also said on Earthsongs:

We have a lot of veterans, people going over there to defend our country.

It's true, and should not be forgotten, that American Indians have contributed substantially to the body count of the American war machine, much as other oppressed groups have done, to the present day. But I guess I have to keep repeating, American forces "over there" in Iraq and Afghanistan are not "defending our country" -- they are attacking other countries. I wonder if Harjo talked the same way during the Vietnam era? (Subject for future research.) I don't see how anyone can deplore the US treatment of the Indians while being so complacent about US aggression against other peoples.

(image credit)

Dueling Parabolas?





David Nichols does some interesting work on fractals as they relate to Gold. Here's a link to his website if you're interested in learning more. I am not a subscriber and have no relationship with him but have read some of his free articles on the web and at his website over the past few years.

Mr. Nichols sees Gold as having entered a parabolic run that may end as soon as early 2010. I have no idea if he's right or not, but the work is interesting and in my opinion is along the same lines as Elliott Wave theory. The rational market hypothesis is obviously worthless, so it is helpful in my opinion to seek out other explanations for market movements.

I was noticing an interesting parallel on the current monthly Gold chart and the NASDAQ chart leading up to its 2000 climax and that the similarities were a little uncanny (the NASDAQ is one of Mr. Nichols' classic examples of a parabolic run). Here's the two charts I created to show the similarities if these two runs end up being similar. First a 10 year monthly non-log scale candlestick chart of the Gold price ($GOLD):



Next, a similar chart of the NASDAQ ($COMPQ) thru the end of 1998:



Kind of similar, no? Here's what happened next in the NASDAQ:



The main problem with this pattern, if this is what's going to happen to the Gold price (I don't claim to know), is that it is awful hard to pick the top in real-time in such a pattern. And if you hold on too long, you're not going to like what happens on the back side (think NASDAQ 2000-2003 or oil last year after the top was in). Those who are married to Gold and who are die hard into the politics (I like the politics, too, but I'm in this to make money) don't like to hear of such talk, but Gold did a similar thing in 1979 and then collapsed after the early 1980 peak.

If this pattern is what's going to happen, that would put the top for Gold in the $2400-2500/oz. range in the first half of 2010. I certainly wouldn't be disappointed in such an outcome. Let's just say that if the Gold price chart keeps tracking the NASDAQ in the same uncanny manner, Gold investors will have to be prepared for a similar resolution. Such a pattern would also create a significant opportunity for shorting Gold on the backside of its price collapse (I know, I know, it's heresy to say such a thing at a Gold site).

Also, keep in mind that Gold stocks will likely peak after the Gold price (and after the Dow to Gold ratio bottoms) and may actually have one of their strongest bull moves after the Gold price peaks if 1980 is a decent guide. As an example of what was typical in the senior Gold patch back then, here's a chart of Homestake Mining versus Gold back then (I believe I stole this chart from a piece by Frank Barbera a while back but I can't remember for sure):



And here are some examples that include junior mining shares (the following table was posted by a CIGA over at jsmineset.com not too long ago) - get ready to smile if you haven't seen this before:



Anyways, the "dueling parabolas" concept is certainly food for thought in my opinion. It's going to be hard to know when to sell Gold for sure. I know we're not close yet at $1200/oz, but once we get over $2000/oz, an exit strategy will be an important part of my investment plan as a long term physical Gold holder. The Dow to Gold ratio is my most trusted guide for this cycle, but once we get to 2, I don't know exactly how much lower this ratio is going to go (Ian Gordon at Long Wave Group has said before that he thinks we're going to reach 0.25 in this ratio!). I figure if I sell my physical Gold too early, I'll just be using the proceeds to buy Gold miners anyways, so I don't think I'll miss too much of the party if history is a reliable guide.

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Puerto Rico Supreme Court considering second-parent adoption

Columbia Law School's Sexuality and Gender Law Clinic has filed a friend of the court brief in AAR, a case pending in the Supreme Court of Puerto Rico. The partner of a biological mom was denied a second-parent adoption, and the court will rule on whether same-sex second parent adoption is permissible in Puerto Rico.

The brief is unique (and not only because it was filed in both English and Spanish). Here on the mainland, no litigant has argued a right to second-parent adoption grounded in norms of international human rights. According to the brief, however, Puerto Rico courts regularly incorporate international law and human rights principles into both statutory interpretation and interpretation of the Commonwealth's constitution. The brief surveys the status of second-parent adoption in other countries; considers rulings from such international tribunals as the European Court of Human Rights; and cites to United Nations and other international human rights documents.

According to a blog post about the case, Puerto Rico does allow second-parent adoption by different-sex parents.

Poetry Friday - The Greater Yield

The Greater Yield

The male disease, the power strategem,
the way of sacrifice, the love that kills.
If something has to give, it won't be them,
men hope, as they engage their phallic wills.
Some say they'd rather be a soldier than
a cripple -- there's a difference?  They believe,
as Wilde did, in appearance, but the man
they praise must wear his balls upon his sleeve.
Be hard, my dear: until you break.  Be brittle,
so when your facade has fallen, then
the tenderness you struggle to belittle
and repress can be exposed again.
Your armor isolates as well as shields.
Some you'll realize the greater yields.

----
(Late 70s or 1980.)

Poetry Friday - The Greater Yield

The Greater Yield

The male disease, the power strategem,
the way of sacrifice, the love that kills.
If something has to give, it won't be them,
men hope, as they engage their phallic wills.
Some say they'd rather be a soldier than
a cripple -- there's a difference?  They believe,
as Wilde did, in appearance, but the man
they praise must wear his balls upon his sleeve.
Be hard, my dear: until you break.  Be brittle,
so when your facade has fallen, then
the tenderness you struggle to belittle
and repress can be exposed again.
Your armor isolates as well as shields.
Some you'll realize the greater yields.

----
(Late 70s or 1980.)

Bearish Visions





There are, in my opinion, some extremely strong warning signals being sent out by the markets right now. Every time we delay the inevitable by artificially supporting and bailing out markets, we create the set up for the next round of volatility. Governments cannot change the primary trend of the economy, they can only destroy the currency and destroy confidence through their irrational and dangerous acts designed to protect the few and screw the majority.

I think the bear market is resuming right here and right now. I think the next leg down will take us to scary new lows in the Dow to Gold ratio and likely in nominal terms as well. There are several signals telegraphing this imminent move for those inclined to pay attention in my opinion. Some of these are repeats from previous posts, so excuse the redundancy. This is my attempt at a unified discussion of the risks in the equity markets right now.

First, and very importantly, are the yields on U.S. government debt, particularly at the short end of the curve. The one year U.S. Treasury note exemplifies this scary trend well (below is a 30 month daily chart thru 11-25-09 close):



Even the 5 year U.S. Treasury bond broke down today (18 month daily chart thru 11-27-09 follows):



I have seen some stupid explanations for the moves in bonds. This is a classic flight to safety, so where's the fire? The big money that moves markets apparently sees what's coming next in the equity markets and they don't like it. Just like last year, the bond market is telegraphing the next wave down in stocks. Big money sells/distributes their equities to the public, escapes to the "safety" of government bonds, then magically the market starts to crumble on any bearish news and "buy the dips" doesn't seem to work any more.

Any other explanation for the move in short-term government bonds is designed to part you from your money. Inflation, deflation or both (I side with deflation when Gold is the measuring stick but have no idea exactly how the paper currency system implosion will play out), the stock bear market is NOT OVER.

Next are the warning signs from Japan, Greece, and some of the non-confirming U.S. sectors and indices. First, Japan, the basket case of the world (following is an 18 month daily candlestick chart of the Nikkei average [$NIKK]):



Japan is in much worse shape than the U.S. when it comes to public debt. However, the Japanese private sector may be nearly finished deleveraging and this is a positive to keep in mind for down the road. Why? Because a currency crisis/devaluation due to the chronic Japanese government incompetence and persistent quantitative easing may occur once the Nikkei bottoms. This could spur a massive rise in the Nikkei as the private sector takes its saved paper currency units out of the banks and government bonds and gets back into "risk" assets. Such a scenario is not for now - we're talking at least a year from now, maybe several years...

Greece, a weak link in the Eurozone economy, is also breaking down in not-so-subtle fashion. Following is an 18 month daily candlestick chart of the Greek stock market ($ATG) thru 11-26-09:



In the U.S., The Russell 2000 small cap index looks like it's starting to crack while everyone watches the S&P 500. Here's an 18 month weekly candlestick chart of this index ($RUT):



I also get an eerie sense of deja vu when I look at a long-term weekly chart of the Dow Jones Utility Average (10 year linear scale weekly candlestick chart thru 11-27-09 follows):



Other sectors that have not made recent new highs along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average include banks, financial services, insurance, commercial real estate, and the homebuilders. In other words, the FIRE (i.e. acronym for finance, insurance, and real estate) economy that defines the essence of the entire U.S. economy is not making new highs with the Dow right now. A narrowing of breadth in the market often occurs under the surface before a major top and I don't think this time is an exception.

Sentiment is back at an irrationally bullish extreme at a time when economic fundamentals have deteriorated further despite what you hear on CNBC (e.g., unemployment, banking system and federal/state/local government insolvency, real estate collapse, etc.). Courtesy of Market Harmonics, here's a chart of the Investors Intelligence percentage bears:



It may seem like everyone is bearish if you spend too much time on the internet reading kooky blogs like this one, but it ain't so. This is also evident when reviewing the equity put to call ratio ($CPCE). Following is a chart of the 20 day moving average (used to smooth out the noise in a daily plot) of the $CPCE over the past 3 years (remember that the lower this number, the lower the ratio of bearish bets [puts] to bullish bets [calls]):



The "dumb money" crowd (of which I sometimes am a card-carrying member despite my best intentions) has a very short memory. People think helicopter Ben can just guarantee everything and the stock market will keep rising as the dollar keeps falling. The dollar may keep falling, but that doesn't mean the stock market won't have another bear leg down! "Dollar down, stocks up" works until it doesn't. If you're a hard core inflationist and subscribe to this horribly misguided oversimplification of the relationship between currency fluctuations and risk assets, explain why stocks didn't go up all through the 1970s. The 1973-1975 bear market was the worst of the last 40 years until the 2007-2009 bear came along! You'll also have to explain why all the money/debt printing, bailouts and government guarantees didn't prevent the Great Panic of 2008 (does anyone remember the massive government interventions related to Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, etc. that "saved" the market from collapse before it ended up collapsing anyway?).

And, finally, that brings us to Gold. Gold won't collapse. It had a vicious correction of 30% in the 2008 fall panic and then it was back up to $1000 a few months later during February. A quick sell-off is possible, of course, but Gold will weather this storm VERY WELL. How can I be so sure? Simple. Central banks are now net buyers in the Gold market at over $1000/ounce. When the hedgies puke, India, China, Russia and others will step up and keep a bid under the market. Central bank buying of Gold is a multi-year buying strategy, not a "make a quick buck by trading" strategy. The writing is now on the wall for the current global currency system and people know that Gold can be relied upon as a currency regardless of what happens to the Dollar, Yen, Yuan, Euro or any other paper debt ticket.

For those projecting shocking drops in the Gold price and a complete deflationary wipeout (a la the 1930s scenario), I would counter that this is highly unlikely for one reason: people don't trust the Dollar any more (as much as Americans would like to believe they do). The Dollar can rise some relative to other counterfeited fiat paper tickets, sure, but Gold will re-emerge as the premier global currency, not the Dollar. The Dollar has had its day in the sun and that time is past. A heavily indebted nation rarely experiences a shocking rise in their currency's value when the poop hits the fan (ask Iceland). I am not saying we can't have another "short squeeze" in the Dollar for a few months - we can and we very well may. But if cash is king during deflation and you're a deflationist, look to real money (i.e. Gold), not the IOUs of an out of control debtor.

In the 1930s, we were on the Gold standard while others left it (e.g., England, Switzerland). We were also a creditor nation rather than a reckless debtor nation. When other countries defaulted on their debts and Gold obligations/standards, money poured into the United States to hold our "good as Gold" Dollar and/or exchange their paper tickets for our Dollar so that they could then redeem those Dollars for Gold! When we defaulted on our Gold obligation in 1971, we sewed the seeds of our currency's destruction. Gold is the asset class at major new highs - not stocks, not commodities, not the Dollar, not real estate, not corporate bonds. You can look at this and call Gold a bubble, or you can recognize massive relative strength and a major secular shift when you see it. The secular Gold bull is just now starting to reach critical mass in my opinion, and I believe it will keep right on going regardless of what the stock market does until the Dow to Gold ratio reaches 2 (and it may well go below 1 this cycle).

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Hey Gold Bug - Are You Feeling Panicky?





Because the paperbugs are going to have a field day over the next several days. The Gold correction has started with a vengeance. Look for paperbugs to provide Bloomberg with quotes on how the Gold bubble has popped, commodities are toast (as if that's relevant to the oldest global currency known as Gold), the Dollar is king again, blah, blah, blah.

This is a normal and healthy correction that has begun in Gold. If you haven't been here before, Gold corrections are not for the faint of heart. This one's starting out sharp and nasty. I think the stock bear has awoken from his/her slumber. Gold is different than the stock market. Gold is not just an anti-dollar play. Gold is a safe currency that yields the exact same as U.S. T-Bills (i.e. zero) but without the built-in depreciation risk.

Here are some "scary" corrections in Gold. First, from late 2005:



Here's one from late 2007:



Let me go out on a limb and predict the late 2009 correction. I'll say it will be about 9% or so over about 1-2 weeks or so (call me crazy!):



Now, let's put things in perspective with a 10 year log scale daily candlestick chart for Gold:



Corrections are necessary. The bull doesn't want you on its back. The paperbugs are going to be out in force trying to scare people out of their Gold positions, mocking Gold and speaking of bubble collapses from a simple multi-week correction that is a necessary part of any bull move. Corrections are buying opportunities. The Gold break-out past $1000 was not a joke in my opinion and not a head fake. Gold stocks are going to get whacked here transiently. This is an opportunity to buy lower if you're a Gold stock bull so that you can sell higher later. Don't be afraid, be patient and be ready to pounce on the Gold (or Gold stock) that others throw away in fear.

GoldSeek.com provides you with the information to make the right decisions on your AU 5 Day investments

The Rule 3 - The Naked Kitchen

I've been working on a review of Hong Ji-Yeong's 2009 release The Naked Kitchen, which seems not to have received much attention despite its quite bankable cast. (The Naked Kitchen is a misleading tease of a title; the Korean title is simply the English word Kitchen, transliterated into Korean. From here I'm just going to call it Kitchen.) Darcy didn't even list it in upcoming releases at Koreanfilm.org as far as I can tell, and he's usually quite thorough. One thing that struck me when I watched it was how well it conformed to the Alison Bechdel / Liz Wallace Rule for movies, which requires that they have at least 1) two women characters, who 2) talk to each other about 3) something other than a man.

Kitchen meets the requirement with ease, perhaps because writer-director Hong is a woman. Ahn Mo-rae (played by Shin Min-a, left in the photo above) lives happily with her financier husband Sang-in (played by Kim Tae-woo, right), and has her own shop which sells parasols decorated with her own painted designs. Her friend Kim Sun-woo is a photographer, still unmarried, and they talk to each other a great deal during the movie, not just about men (Sun-woo thinks Mo-rae married too young and needs more experience) but about their work. Early in the movie, for example, Sun-woo drafts Mo-rae to help her photograph a wedding, so they talk about the work they're doing and about Mo-rae's pay for the gig. Sun-woo is a familiar type, the slightly older, tough, brassy working female buddy, but she has a good-sized role in the story, and I find her very sympathetic. (I couldn't, however, find any photos online of the two women together.)

Other than that, Kitchen is pretty conventional. Sang-in quits his job to pursue his lifelong dream of being the chef in his own restaurant, and brings from France a young cooking prodigy, Park Du-re (played by Joo Ji-hoon, center in the top photo), to coach him and help work out the menu. Du-re and Mo-rae start an affair (Sun-woo was right, Mo-rae needed more experience) and things get complicated. Kitchen flirts, ever so delicately, with male homoeroticism -- there seems to be a hint that Sang-in and Du-re also had an affair when they met in France, which Du-re would like to rekindle in Korea; but the flirtation seems more fashionable than sincere. The 2006 hit The King and the Clown proved young Korean women to be as susceptible as young women elsewhere to the fantasy of pretty young men smooching each other, but Kitchen doesn't pursue the theme beyond the aforementioned hint. Too bad -- it might have improved the box-office.


The Rule 3 - The Naked Kitchen

I've been working on a review of Hong Ji-Yeong's 2009 release The Naked Kitchen, which seems not to have received much attention despite its quite bankable cast. (The Naked Kitchen is a misleading tease of a title; the Korean title is simply the English word Kitchen, transliterated into Korean. From here I'm just going to call it Kitchen.) Darcy didn't even list it in upcoming releases at Koreanfilm.org as far as I can tell, and he's usually quite thorough. One thing that struck me when I watched it was how well it conformed to the Alison Bechdel / Liz Wallace Rule for movies, which requires that they have at least 1) two women characters, who 2) talk to each other about 3) something other than a man.

Kitchen meets the requirement with ease, perhaps because writer-director Hong is a woman. Ahn Mo-rae (played by Shin Min-a, left in the photo above) lives happily with her financier husband Sang-in (played by Kim Tae-woo, right), and has her own shop which sells parasols decorated with her own painted designs. Her friend Kim Sun-woo is a photographer, still unmarried, and they talk to each other a great deal during the movie, not just about men (Sun-woo thinks Mo-rae married too young and needs more experience) but about their work. Early in the movie, for example, Sun-woo drafts Mo-rae to help her photograph a wedding, so they talk about the work they're doing and about Mo-rae's pay for the gig. Sun-woo is a familiar type, the slightly older, tough, brassy working female buddy, but she has a good-sized role in the story, and I find her very sympathetic. (I couldn't, however, find any photos online of the two women together.)

Other than that, Kitchen is pretty conventional. Sang-in quits his job to pursue his lifelong dream of being the chef in his own restaurant, and brings from France a young cooking prodigy, Park Du-re (played by Joo Ji-hoon, center in the top photo), to coach him and help work out the menu. Du-re and Mo-rae start an affair (Sun-woo was right, Mo-rae needed more experience) and things get complicated. Kitchen flirts, ever so delicately, with male homoeroticism -- there seems to be a hint that Sang-in and Du-re also had an affair when they met in France, which Du-re would like to rekindle in Korea; but the flirtation seems more fashionable than sincere. The 2006 hit The King and the Clown proved young Korean women to be as susceptible as young women elsewhere to the fantasy of pretty young men smooching each other, but Kitchen doesn't pursue the theme beyond the aforementioned hint. Too bad -- it might have improved the box-office.


Special Thanks to Paul





For doing the work I don't have the energy to do right now. Mr. Paul has been updating the junior Gold mining spreadsheet I posted a while back (I have placed a permanent link on the right side of the site under the "links" section per his excellent suggestion). He has been doing more work on this than I have lately. There are still plenty of holes in this spreadsheet but this is starting to become a valuable "quick" way for me to evaluate a junior relative to others in the sector.

No promises on when (or if) it will ever be completed and how often it will be updated. No guarantees on any of the info in this spreadsheet, as it is all subject to change at any time. Blah, blah, blah...

Anyhoo, thank you, Paul!

GoldSeek.com provides you with the information to make the right decisions on your AU 5 Day investments

"The Thankful Receiver Bears a Plentiful Harvest" (William Blake)

Today on Thanksgiving, I give thanks to Homo Superior Curates the Web, JaySays, and LGBTLatest Science for irritating me into posting after a week of procrastination. Like Easter and Yule, the Thanksgiving season evidently depresses IQs and brings the mushbrained out of hibernation. (And if they see their shadows, we'll have six more weeks of winter.) Homo Superior linked to posts at the latter two sites, which I followed and read, till smoke began coming out of my ears.

"Common sense tells me that God did not put pen to paper," writes geekgirl at JaySays in her meditation on the Bible and love; this is what Homo Superior quoted. Oy! Common sense tells me that the earth is the center of the universe, and that God created Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve. To see a scientist invoke common sense, which is rightly undermined by so much of science, makes my brain hurt. In any case, fundamentalist Christians don't believe that Yahweh "put pen to paper", they believe that he inspired the biblical writers to do so, and preserved them from error in some obscure way. There's an old rabbinic story, quoted by the philosopher Walter Kaufmann in one of his books, in which Moses encounters Yahweh fashioning little decorations for the letters in the Hebrew alphabet so that, centuries later, Rabbi Akiba could come up with interpretations of their use in the Torah. But the rabbis didn't take this story literally; it was a loving joke about a revered, martyred teacher.

Geekgirl begins by lamenting that "I can’t recall a year, in my adult life time, where religion has been used so much as a tool for discrimination and lies." Since she has been married for 32 years, she and I must be more or less of an age, so I suspect she simply hasn't been paying attention. During the struggle for African-American civil rights, for example, the Bible was used on all sides, for as geekgirl also writes, "The Bible can be used to support or dismiss almost any point of view." Opponents of racial equality appealed to biblical teaching to justify racial inequality and segregation, and of course many prominent leaders of the Civil Rights movement were Christian ministers. Since then we've seen the religious campaign against abortion, and the 1980s saw a flood of polemics against "Secular Humanism."  Then there's the use of the Bible to support anti-Semitism, the displacement and elimination of aboriginal Americans, internecine quarrels among Christians themselves, and of course Crusades against both infidel and heretic. And need I mention the Religious Right campaign against gay people, which began 30 years ago with Anita Bryant?  (Who, like the Lord Jesus, is with us always.)  The Bible itself, both Testaments, contains plenty of material witnessing to (sometimes literally) bloodthirsty attacks by believers on outsiders.

Geekgirl continues:

The Bible is a collection of writings, mostly found through archaeological means, written in ancient languages such as Hebrew, Greek and Aramaic, over centuries. It has undergone translation and censorship. It has been studied by many people intensely for years at academic institutions. Common sense tells me that God did not put pen to paper. ...
Those who've read much of this blog may notice echoes here of other foolish things that liberal Christians say about the Bible. This time I was struck by geekgirl's remark that the Bible is "mostly found through archaeological means." While ancient biblical manuscripts have been found by archaeologists among the Dead Sea Scrolls and some other finds, the Bible has been in continuous use by Christians and Jews for around 2500 years. The ancient copies are useful for the scholarly study of the Biblical text, but they're not necessary; the Bible would still be with us if none of them had ever been discovered. I can't imagine what geekgirl thought she was saying, but on its face it's absurdly false. Further, while Greek, Hebrew, and Aramaic have been used since ancient times, all three of them are still in use as first languages today: they are every bit as modern as they are ancient. If geekgirl (who "believes in Buddhism and attends the United Church of Christ") wants to write about the Bible, she should set her common sense aside and do some studyin'.

Next geekgirl picks out one bit of the Bible that she likes, chapter 13 of Paul's first epistle to the Corinthians, his celebrated celebration of love. "If one reads the writings of St. Paul in Corinthians, it’s almost as if he is bipolar. There are passages regarding slavery, women shaving their heads, not speaking in church, and the list goes on. Yet, we have a passage that has remarkable insight." Her reference to "Corinthians" as if it were a book is a minor but telling confirmation of her ignorance about the Bible. There are two epistles to the Corinthians, and scholars believe that there were more; some may have been lost, or perhaps parts of them were incorporated into the canonical versions you'll find in a Bible today.

Diagnosing the mental health of a person who's been dead for almost two thousand years is rarely a good idea. Why does geekgirl suggest that Paul was bipolar? Is it because he expresses views on "slavery, women shaving their heads [another indication that she hasn't read Paul with even minimal care], not speaking in church" that she disagrees with, while expressing other views with "remarkable insight"? It's not necessary to look at other ancient writers to find similar behavior -- indeed, today's gay Christians and their allies are capable of prattling about love and then switching to hateful stereotyping of other, less sanctified homosexuals. I wonder if "bipolar" is replacing "schizophrenic" as a pseudo-medical label for people with erratic personalities -- or who simply make other, "nice" people uncomfortable.

As for what Paul wrote on love, I don't find it particularly interesting. "Love" is a buzzword now, and reading the New Testament indicates that it also was in Biblical times. One of my favorite examples, aside from Paul or Jesus himself, are the epistles of John. The famous slogan "God is love" appears in one of these, 1 John 4:8 and 4:16. In the second epistle, the writer warns, "If there come any unto you, and bring not this doctrine, receive him not into your house, neither bid him God speed; for he that biddeth him God speed is partaker of his evil deeds" (10-11, KJV). But in the third epistle, the writer complains that he has been treated as he treated others: "I wrote unto the church: but Diotrephes, who loveth to have the preeminence among them, receiveth us not. Wherefore, if I come, I will remember his deeds which he doeth, prating against us with malicious words: and not content therewith, neither doth he himself receive the brethren, and forbiddeth them that would, and casteth them out of the church" (3 John 9-10, KJV). By geekgirl's criterion, John the Elder must also have been bipolar.

Next we move to geekgirl's own blog, LGBT Latest Science. In the post linked by Homo Superior, she takes on the argument against same-sex marriage that "Marriage is for procreation." She doesn't provide any links to people who actually say this, however; at most it is a shorthand for a more complex position, like "Marriage is about love." What I've seen in this regard is something slightly different, that the (or at least, one) marriage is to provide a stable environment for children to grow up in. Earlier today, for example, I saw an article at the Advocate online, quoting former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee to the effect that "the basis of marriage is procreation; children ideally need a man and woman as parents he said." (Huckabee also brought up polygamy, inexplicably treating it as a bad thing instead of a return to traditional biblical values.)

On this point, however, Huckabee isn't that far from advocates of same-sex marriage, who also often claim that children need parents who are married to each other. In Beyond (Gay and Straight) Marriage (Beacon, 2008) Nancy Polikoff wrote:

The marriage movement uses one refrain to push its agenda: that marriage is good for children and that raising children outside marriage damages both them and society.

It’s especially troubling when marriage-equality advocates make similar assertions. The constitutional mandate and law reform of efforts of the late 1960s and 1970s reflected the understanding that children are not supposed to suffer harm as a result of having unmarried parents. The lifelong disabilities of “illegitimacy” have been erased. If a law discriminates between a child born to married parents and a child born to unmarried parents, it is subject to heightened scrutiny under the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution.

… Some who urge marriage as the solution to children’s needs fail to distinguish between consequences of marriage and consequences of parenthood. For example, a National Gay and Lesbian Task Force publication refers to the lack of educational assistance for the children of deceased public safety officers “who lack legal recognition of the parent-child relationship due to the lack of marriage rights of their parents.” But a child does not need his parents to be married to get these rights; the child needs his parent to be legally recognized as his parent. The same is true for children of heterosexual parents.

…For those advantages linked to parenthood, marriage is not necessary for the children of either same-sex or different-sex couples. For those requiring marriage of a child’s parents, all children with unmarried parents suffer. All the costs to children of what the Human Rights Campaign Foundation calls “marriage inequality” would be eliminated by building on the changes started in the 1970s to eliminate the disadvantages that children of unmarried parents experience [pages 100-1].
Though geekgirl disavows the intention of getting into religion in this post, she can't quite stay away from it. "For years, conservative religions have encouraged abstinence. The Catholic Church went so far as to say that couples should have sex only when they want sex." (I think she meant to end that sentence, "... only when they want children." I don't think she disagrees that couples should have sex only when they want sex.) "Conservative religions" have indeed "encouraged abstinence" for years: the New Testament is at best ambivalent about marriage, with Jesus encouraging his followers to become eunuchs for the Kingdom (Matthew 19:12) and forbidding divorce, which his disciples took as discouraging marriage in the first place (Matthew 19:10). Paul discouraged marriage in 1 Corinthians 7, where he argued that although marriage provides a licit outlet for sexual desire, a married man cares about pleasing his wife while a single man cares about pleasing the Lord, so it's better to remain single if possible. This remained the ideal of the Christian churches for centuries afterward.

I have no quarrel with geekgirl's observation, quoted by Homo Superior, that "Our desire for sex is a desire for sex, not a desire for children," nor with the Darwinian framework in which she put it. I suspect that our desire for marriage is also a desire for an fairy-tale wedding, not a desire for children. But I do think that geekgirl needs to inform herself a little before engaging in debate as a GLBT ally. As I've said before, gay people and our allies shouldn't spread misinformation -- that's what bigots are paid to do.

And now, I'm going out for a walk. I hope it's not raining too hard.

(image credit; and thanks, seriously, to the teachers I had who inspired and encouraged me to be the reading, thinking person that I hope I turned out to be, even if not in the way they might have wished)

"The Thankful Receiver Bears a Plentiful Harvest" (William Blake)

Today on Thanksgiving, I give thanks to Homo Superior Curates the Web, JaySays, and LGBTLatest Science for irritating me into posting after a week of procrastination. Like Easter and Yule, the Thanksgiving season evidently depresses IQs and brings the mushbrained out of hibernation. (And if they see their shadows, we'll have six more weeks of winter.) Homo Superior linked to posts at the latter two sites, which I followed and read, till smoke began coming out of my ears.

"Common sense tells me that God did not put pen to paper," writes geekgirl at JaySays in her meditation on the Bible and love; this is what Homo Superior quoted. Oy! Common sense tells me that the earth is the center of the universe, and that God created Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve. To see a scientist invoke common sense, which is rightly undermined by so much of science, makes my brain hurt. In any case, fundamentalist Christians don't believe that Yahweh "put pen to paper", they believe that he inspired the biblical writers to do so, and preserved them from error in some obscure way. There's an old rabbinic story, quoted by the philosopher Walter Kaufmann in one of his books, in which Moses encounters Yahweh fashioning little decorations for the letters in the Hebrew alphabet so that, centuries later, Rabbi Akiba could come up with interpretations of their use in the Torah. But the rabbis didn't take this story literally; it was a loving joke about a revered, martyred teacher.

Geekgirl begins by lamenting that "I can’t recall a year, in my adult life time, where religion has been used so much as a tool for discrimination and lies." Since she has been married for 32 years, she and I must be more or less of an age, so I suspect she simply hasn't been paying attention. During the struggle for African-American civil rights, for example, the Bible was used on all sides, for as geekgirl also writes, "The Bible can be used to support or dismiss almost any point of view." Opponents of racial equality appealed to biblical teaching to justify racial inequality and segregation, and of course many prominent leaders of the Civil Rights movement were Christian ministers. Since then we've seen the religious campaign against abortion, and the 1980s saw a flood of polemics against "Secular Humanism."  Then there's the use of the Bible to support anti-Semitism, the displacement and elimination of aboriginal Americans, internecine quarrels among Christians themselves, and of course Crusades against both infidel and heretic. And need I mention the Religious Right campaign against gay people, which began 30 years ago with Anita Bryant?  (Who, like the Lord Jesus, is with us always.)  The Bible itself, both Testaments, contains plenty of material witnessing to (sometimes literally) bloodthirsty attacks by believers on outsiders.

Geekgirl continues:

The Bible is a collection of writings, mostly found through archaeological means, written in ancient languages such as Hebrew, Greek and Aramaic, over centuries. It has undergone translation and censorship. It has been studied by many people intensely for years at academic institutions. Common sense tells me that God did not put pen to paper. ...
Those who've read much of this blog may notice echoes here of other foolish things that liberal Christians say about the Bible. This time I was struck by geekgirl's remark that the Bible is "mostly found through archaeological means." While ancient biblical manuscripts have been found by archaeologists among the Dead Sea Scrolls and some other finds, the Bible has been in continuous use by Christians and Jews for around 2500 years. The ancient copies are useful for the scholarly study of the Biblical text, but they're not necessary; the Bible would still be with us if none of them had ever been discovered. I can't imagine what geekgirl thought she was saying, but on its face it's absurdly false. Further, while Greek, Hebrew, and Aramaic have been used since ancient times, all three of them are still in use as first languages today: they are every bit as modern as they are ancient. If geekgirl (who "believes in Buddhism and attends the United Church of Christ") wants to write about the Bible, she should set her common sense aside and do some studyin'.

Next geekgirl picks out one bit of the Bible that she likes, chapter 13 of Paul's first epistle to the Corinthians, his celebrated celebration of love. "If one reads the writings of St. Paul in Corinthians, it’s almost as if he is bipolar. There are passages regarding slavery, women shaving their heads, not speaking in church, and the list goes on. Yet, we have a passage that has remarkable insight." Her reference to "Corinthians" as if it were a book is a minor but telling confirmation of her ignorance about the Bible. There are two epistles to the Corinthians, and scholars believe that there were more; some may have been lost, or perhaps parts of them were incorporated into the canonical versions you'll find in a Bible today.

Diagnosing the mental health of a person who's been dead for almost two thousand years is rarely a good idea. Why does geekgirl suggest that Paul was bipolar? Is it because he expresses views on "slavery, women shaving their heads [another indication that she hasn't read Paul with even minimal care], not speaking in church" that she disagrees with, while expressing other views with "remarkable insight"? It's not necessary to look at other ancient writers to find similar behavior -- indeed, today's gay Christians and their allies are capable of prattling about love and then switching to hateful stereotyping of other, less sanctified homosexuals. I wonder if "bipolar" is replacing "schizophrenic" as a pseudo-medical label for people with erratic personalities -- or who simply make other, "nice" people uncomfortable.

As for what Paul wrote on love, I don't find it particularly interesting. "Love" is a buzzword now, and reading the New Testament indicates that it also was in Biblical times. One of my favorite examples, aside from Paul or Jesus himself, are the epistles of John. The famous slogan "God is love" appears in one of these, 1 John 4:8 and 4:16. In the second epistle, the writer warns, "If there come any unto you, and bring not this doctrine, receive him not into your house, neither bid him God speed; for he that biddeth him God speed is partaker of his evil deeds" (10-11, KJV). But in the third epistle, the writer complains that he has been treated as he treated others: "I wrote unto the church: but Diotrephes, who loveth to have the preeminence among them, receiveth us not. Wherefore, if I come, I will remember his deeds which he doeth, prating against us with malicious words: and not content therewith, neither doth he himself receive the brethren, and forbiddeth them that would, and casteth them out of the church" (3 John 9-10, KJV). By geekgirl's criterion, John the Elder must also have been bipolar.

Next we move to geekgirl's own blog, LGBT Latest Science. In the post linked by Homo Superior, she takes on the argument against same-sex marriage that "Marriage is for procreation." She doesn't provide any links to people who actually say this, however; at most it is a shorthand for a more complex position, like "Marriage is about love." What I've seen in this regard is something slightly different, that the (or at least, one) marriage is to provide a stable environment for children to grow up in. Earlier today, for example, I saw an article at the Advocate online, quoting former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee to the effect that "the basis of marriage is procreation; children ideally need a man and woman as parents he said." (Huckabee also brought up polygamy, inexplicably treating it as a bad thing instead of a return to traditional biblical values.)

On this point, however, Huckabee isn't that far from advocates of same-sex marriage, who also often claim that children need parents who are married to each other. In Beyond (Gay and Straight) Marriage (Beacon, 2008) Nancy Polikoff wrote:

The marriage movement uses one refrain to push its agenda: that marriage is good for children and that raising children outside marriage damages both them and society.

It’s especially troubling when marriage-equality advocates make similar assertions. The constitutional mandate and law reform of efforts of the late 1960s and 1970s reflected the understanding that children are not supposed to suffer harm as a result of having unmarried parents. The lifelong disabilities of “illegitimacy” have been erased. If a law discriminates between a child born to married parents and a child born to unmarried parents, it is subject to heightened scrutiny under the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution.

… Some who urge marriage as the solution to children’s needs fail to distinguish between consequences of marriage and consequences of parenthood. For example, a National Gay and Lesbian Task Force publication refers to the lack of educational assistance for the children of deceased public safety officers “who lack legal recognition of the parent-child relationship due to the lack of marriage rights of their parents.” But a child does not need his parents to be married to get these rights; the child needs his parent to be legally recognized as his parent. The same is true for children of heterosexual parents.

…For those advantages linked to parenthood, marriage is not necessary for the children of either same-sex or different-sex couples. For those requiring marriage of a child’s parents, all children with unmarried parents suffer. All the costs to children of what the Human Rights Campaign Foundation calls “marriage inequality” would be eliminated by building on the changes started in the 1970s to eliminate the disadvantages that children of unmarried parents experience [pages 100-1].
Though geekgirl disavows the intention of getting into religion in this post, she can't quite stay away from it. "For years, conservative religions have encouraged abstinence. The Catholic Church went so far as to say that couples should have sex only when they want sex." (I think she meant to end that sentence, "... only when they want children." I don't think she disagrees that couples should have sex only when they want sex.) "Conservative religions" have indeed "encouraged abstinence" for years: the New Testament is at best ambivalent about marriage, with Jesus encouraging his followers to become eunuchs for the Kingdom (Matthew 19:12) and forbidding divorce, which his disciples took as discouraging marriage in the first place (Matthew 19:10). Paul discouraged marriage in 1 Corinthians 7, where he argued that although marriage provides a licit outlet for sexual desire, a married man cares about pleasing his wife while a single man cares about pleasing the Lord, so it's better to remain single if possible. This remained the ideal of the Christian churches for centuries afterward.

I have no quarrel with geekgirl's observation, quoted by Homo Superior, that "Our desire for sex is a desire for sex, not a desire for children," nor with the Darwinian framework in which she put it. I suspect that our desire for marriage is also a desire for an fairy-tale wedding, not a desire for children. But I do think that geekgirl needs to inform herself a little before engaging in debate as a GLBT ally. As I've said before, gay people and our allies shouldn't spread misinformation -- that's what bigots are paid to do.

And now, I'm going out for a walk. I hope it's not raining too hard.

(image credit; and thanks, seriously, to the teachers I had who inspired and encouraged me to be the reading, thinking person that I hope I turned out to be, even if not in the way they might have wished)