Gold mining fundamentals revisited - deflation
Gold stocks are not well understood and not well studied by most investors. Everyone thinks gold stocks are an inflationary play just like all commodity stocks. Gold miners behave differently than other commodity stocks such as oil or agricultural stocks, however. Gold stock fundamentals are actually paradoxically strongest during a deflation.
The reason, it turns out, is basic economics/finance 101 type stuff: gold falls in price less than the costs of mining during a deflation. If the product you are selling decreases in price by 10% (as in gold from the March 2008 peak to now) but your costs decrease even more than 10% (as in oil falling in price by 70% in price), you just increased your profit margins despite a falling price of gold!
Here is a ratio chart of the gold price divided by a basket of commodities to show the relative outperformance of gold since the deflationary storm began:
In the end, gold miner stock prices will reflect the increased earnings deflation brings them. Paradoxically, the greater the deflationary forces, the greater the profit margins for gold mining companies will rise. If the deflationary shit storm we are in spirals out of control and gold goes down to $500/ounce, that means oil will be $3/barrel and unemployment will be 30-35%. Labor costs will drop precipitously for gold miners as every base metal mining company in the world will go out of business and/or cut 90% of its work force in that setting and there will be all kinds of experienced mining talent available for pennies on the dollar.
Once one understands that gold miners are a better deflationary play than an inflationary one, the paradox of investing in gold miners in a deflationary crash makes sense. It's not that gold miners won't get whacked when the general stock market takes a dive, but they will outperform and create net gains while general stocks and other commodities generate steep net losses.
Think about that for a minute. Where can you invest your money in a deflationary shit storm and actually make money? Government bonds pay maybe 0-3% yield, cash in the bank and CDs pays the same, and everything else loses money. Look at how gold stocks did during the last Depression in the 1930s here and take a look at the historical countercyclical nature of gold stocks here.
The non-believers in gold stocks for the period we are in are those steeped in conventional "wisdom" who listen to mainstream media sources and fail to look at history. Did you know that gold is a better protector of wealth during deflationary periods than inflationary ones? Again, it's about relative price not absolute price. If gold drops 20% and real estate and stocks drop 80%, a gold investor can buy a hell of a lot more real estate and stocks once the dust settles.
A new cyclical leg up in this gold stock bull market has begun. The secular gold stock bull market began in 2000, the same year the secular bear market in stocks began. A fast and furious cyclical bear market in gold stocks from March 2008 to October 2008 took only 7 months to wipe out two-thirds of the gains from the first cyclical leg of the gold stock bull market from 2000- March 2008. This is a pretty typical correction after the first cyclical leg up in a bull market.
The current cyclical (i.e. measured in years, not decades) leg up in gold stocks that has started is considered a "wave 3" in Elliott terms and it promises to be a wild, profitable ride. Since the first leg up in the $HUI (a basket of blue chip, non-hedged producing gold miners - aka the gold bugs index) produced gains of 1470% in 7.5 years, the third leg up may provide a similar or even greater relative gain. A gold stock "mania" is sure to evolve since profits for gold miners are about to shoot to the moon and profits for 95% of other publicly traded companies are evaporating.
Road map revisited
I am still short and waiting for another few scary down days before I close my shorts and start getting ready to go long. Here is a potential road map for the S&P 500, which I am not trading, but rising and falling general market conditions are important to be aware of when trading, as individual stocks and sectors always have an easier time when swimming with the current instead of against it!
Here is a recent example in history of such a correction in the S&P 500 one year ago:
The chart patterns aren't and won't be exactly the same but this is a rather common correction pattern in stocks and I suspect a rhyme is coming. The current correction simply hasn't lasted long enough to be complete in my opinion. This has nothing to do with fundamentals, but the bear market crash we just has this fall is worth at least a 4 month correction to work off the excess bearishness, restore some investor hope, and give the downward trend a healthy breather.
We may overshoot the November 2008 S&P 500 low of 750 by a few points just to draw in a few overly aggressive bears who think we're going straight to zero. The people going short near the bottom of this correction will actually help fuel the subsequent rise when they cover their short bets gone wrong (this is why a ban on short selling is a paradoxically a bad idea, by the way).
Things I'll be looking for to help confirm we're bottoming and getting ready to launch upward:
1) RSI down to 30 level/range on a daily chart of the $SPX
2) Put to call ratio ($CPCE) should reach or exceed 1.10 on a daily chart
3) The Volatility index ($VIX) should reach or exceed 55
Once these conditions are met, I'll be looking to close my put option contracts on NEM and KSS and preparing to go long. When I do go long, it will be using call option contracts on Goldcorp (GG) and Royal Gold (RGLD) predominantly, though I may nibble on a few other gold miners. Gold stocks will outperform the S&P 500 significantly during this pending spring rally. I think a 50% gain in the ETF GDX from the bottom of the current correction, which should be completed in 1-3 weeks, is all but guaranteed (a few individual gold stocks will go up 100% or more). The best part is that it will only take 2-3 months to make these types of gains.
Gold - bull trap
I don't trust gold kicking butt right now. Call me a skeptic, and you all should know as full disclosure that I am heavily invested in physical gold and I am a long-term bull on gold. I think we're headed for a steep, sharp quick fall that will provide yet another great buying opportunity (I hope...). Pay close attention to the final peak at the far right of the chart:
Now the gold miners, using a 6 month chart of the ETF GDX as a proxy for the sector. Look for that same price spike at the far right side of the chart:
The strength of gold and gold miners has been impressive. I said the gold mining stock rally would end before December was over and we haven't made any real progress since then. We are now overdue for a quick, swift plunge (which is why I'm short NEM right now despite my longer-term bullishness on the sector). The ratio of GDX to the S&P 500 is also due for a rest and gold stocks should underperform the $SPX over at least the next week or two:
At the end of this correction, which should take at least one week, gold stocks will be the number one sector (ignoring leverage opportunities) for profits, although I think 90% of stocks will rally frantically in a final short-term (i.e. 4 - 10 weeks) rally to complete the bear market bounce before the next deadly plunge. Are you ready?
Poetry Friday - a short and dreadful poem
about love. what else?
when you like awake wrapped in your caftan
without a comforter
alone like an abandoned baby tangled in a shawl
think of the moon locked in its orbit
in the scorching vacuum and darkness
with always the same face turned to the earth
unable to look away, unable ever to come nearer.
this is a short and dreadful poem
about love. what else?
Poetry Friday - a short and dreadful poem
about love. what else?
when you like awake wrapped in your caftan
without a comforter
alone like an abandoned baby tangled in a shawl
think of the moon locked in its orbit
in the scorching vacuum and darkness
with always the same face turned to the earth
unable to look away, unable ever to come nearer.
this is a short and dreadful poem
about love. what else?
Uncle Buck
As in the U.S. Greenback. I think she's got one more push up to go before rolling over into a longer-term downward correction. To the charts:
The value of the U.S. currency is very important to investors who denominate gains in that currency. If dollars are stronger, it takes few of them to buy companies/stocks/bonds/commodities because the measuring stick of how their value is measured has changed. This is why fiat currency systems can be so tricky. This is also why inflation is so insidious.
Bottom line: currency up usually = asset prices down. This general premise doesn't always work, as stock markets can rise along with the currency, just like sometimes gold rises on days when the US dollar also does. However, this premise usually applies and having the dollar take one more run up for a week or so fits in well with my investment thesis that stocks, commodities and gold have one more brief correction to go before the spring rally.
The spring rally will gain legs precisely because the value of the U.S. Dollar will decline during the rally. If the currency is declining in value, the nominal U.S. price of the stock market will rise automatically in most cases. This is why the Dow to gold ratio is important and told us we were deep into the secular bear market well before the 2007 nominal top was in. The chart below plots the Dow Jones (red and black candles on the chart) with an overlying plot of the Dow divided by the gold price (black thin line on chart) over the past 15 years. This picture is worth more than 1,000 words (and well over $1,000 if you're an investor who gets most financial info from Cramer!):
Anyone who thinks gold isn't a currency and real money needs to explain why gold is only down 10% from its all time nominal highs while other commodities have been crushed by 40-70%. The bottom line is that when you use a measuring stick that reflects non-debaseable true money, we have been in a bear market for 10 years. People always look at me with a jaundiced eye when I show them the above chart.
Want more conventional proof? How about the Dow priced in Euros aka investing in America from a European perspective:
When a currency is devalued, nominal prices rise. In hyperinflation, as in Zimbabwe, the price of a loaf of bread might be a billion or even a trillion dollars and stocks might rise 1,000% in a year when denominated in the local currency. I'm not saying we're Zimbabwe, I'm simply saying that currency debasement produced an illusory nominal new high in the Dow that was artificial.
By the way, I do believe deflation will last for a while and after the spring rally up in stocks and commodities and the dollar correction down, I believe the U.S. Dollar will get stronger again and rise to even higher highs, confounding its critics. However, I believe gold will rise higher in nominal terms than the dollar and do even better than U.S. cash. Since cash is king and debt is death in a deflation, why be invested in anything besides real, true, honest to goodness debt-free money?
Smells like a trend change...
As someone who trades in options a lot, I am always interested at what the $VIX (volatility or "fear" index) is doing, as it can affect the value of options. I think the $VIX is changing direction here, which means the S&P 500 should be going down for a while. Here's a short-term 60 minute intraday chart:
When $VIX goes up, the value of put options often goes up even if the underlying stock is flat. I have been in KSS (Kohl's corp.) puts and have experienced this in the reverse, as the stock has been fairly flat to down since I bought the options and yet the options price has dropped a little (bummer...). It's not too late to get into these puts for this reason. Once the $VIX rallies, the option price will rise again and that will be a wind in the 'ol profit sails as KSS takes the anticipated dive.
I believe the NYSE composite ($NYA) has already broken down trough its trend line and is supportive of a short-term trend change in general stocks:
One more decent leg down to scare the last of the bulls, then I think that spring fever bull rally I have been waiting for is coming, which will carry almost all stocks to higher levels than seems possible given the horrible state of the underlying economy. Bear market rallies are legendary and offer great profit opportunity for traders. Those not in gold stocks (e.g., GDX ETF) or oil stocks (e.g., DIG ETF) who want to go long need to be patient but get ready to go long once the bottom is in, as it should be a barnburner of a rally.
End federal funding of marriage promotion: Part I
So this post is the first of a periodic series on ending that funding. Obama wants to cut wasteful spending from the federal budget. Start with eliminating what has not been spent of the $750,000,000 for marriage promotion, and don't add any more.
George Bush appointed Wade Horn as the Assistant Secretary for Children and Families at HHS, giving him control over marriage promotion and abstinence-only sex education funding as well as other important family policy concerns. Horn used the position to fund an infrastructure that supports his right-wing ideological agenda.
That's why the person Obama appoints to this position is so critical. Last month, I wrote a letter to then Secretary-Designate Tom Daschle on behalf several groups (Alternatives to Marriage Project, Family Equality Council, Legal Momentum, National Center for Lesbian Rights, National Gay and Lesbian Task Force Action Fund, and SIECUS) and noted academics, Anna Marie Smith, Jean Hardisty, and Judith Stacey. Read it here. Add your voice. If federal family policy is going to truly value all families, it needs to start at the top.
But How Many Divisions Does He Have?
Brociner praises "progressives" for having "approached politics in a principled and pragmatic manner" in the past year. They didn't make any third-party moves, and better yet, progressives resisted the "temptation of political purists to sit on the sidelines as a presidential election hung in the balance because the Democratic nominee wasn’t progressive enough."
In short, the unrestrained progressive activism during the campaign signals a weakening of the dogma that has previously stifled the left. To build on this momentum, we should do all we can to further minimize both doctrinaire thinking and shrill rhetoric within our ranks. By doing so, we’ll be able to enhance our movement’s ability to communicate with the American public.As I said, Brociner writes badly, tossing a fine salad of clichés: "doctrinaire thinking," "shrill rhetoric," "enhance our movement's ability to communicate with the American public" (as though liberals and progressives weren't part of the American public). Judging by the articles listed in the sidebar, "dogma" is one of Brociner's cusswords. And "unrestrained progressive activism"? Where did that come from? What does it even refer to, in the context of the Obama campaign, which harnessed the energy of many progressives in the service of a center-right candidate? Oh, I don't know... "unrestrained" sounds so cool, like an ad for tampons or feminine hygiene spray; it's marketing talk, not argument.
Brociner begins his article by exulting, "Liberals, progressives and leftists worked their tails off to help elect Barack Obama—and this time we won!" Did "we"? What exactly did "we" win? Yes, "our" candidate was elected, but he's given nothing back to the "liberals, progressives and leftists" who worked their tails off to help elect him. His advisors and cabinet appointees are overwhelmingly right-wing, with the notable exception of Hilda Solis, who's under attack from the Republicans for her pro-labor stance. (There's a good article on Solis at the In These Times site. The author thinks that the Republican attacks won't succeed in blocking her appointment. I hope he's right; Obama has already backed down on support for contraception in his economic stimulus plan, under attack from the usual Republican suspects.) Brociner sounds like a sports fan to me, happy because "we" -- the corporate-owned team he roots for -- won. After his victory, Obama moved quickly and decisively to reward his corporate and party supporters; he has not been so generous to liberals, progressives, and leftists.
(P.S. February 1: It turns out that it isn't the Republicans who are blocking Solis' nomination in committee; it's the Democrats, with Obama's encouragement.)
Argument generally is in short supply in Brociner's piece. All is not well in Progressiveland, for "even progressive icons can, at times, have a negative influence on the movement’s ideological understanding of the world." Brociner has a bone to pick with two such "icons", Noam Chomsky and Naomi Klein.
He begins by praising Chomsky in a way that strongly suggests he knows him only as an icon; he doesn't seem to have read his writings much.
One of Chomsky’s many strengths has been his uncanny ability to deconstruct propaganda and, in doing so, expose the hypocritical—and often criminal—nature of our government’s actions.
Chomsky has often complained about fans who think he "deconstructs" anything, claiming in his endearing Old-Left Philistine way that he doesn't even know what "deconstruct" means. Well, neither does Brociner. As Chomsky has always insisted, what he does is nothing particularly complex or technical; he just reads a lot and pays attention to what he reads, much as the journalist I. F. Stone used to do.
However, while Chomsky’s biting skepticism towards practically everything that emanates from official sources is generally on target, his bitterness, has at times, come to cloud his better judgment. Furthermore, his writings all too often tend to convey an overly conspiratorial view of world politics.
Ah, "bitterness." Numerous people have accused Chomsky of such things. I've been trying to track down a review of one his books in The Nation, from the 1990s I believe, which lamented that while the great man had been on-target during the Vietnam era, as time went on and he was ignored by the Powers That Be, his work took on a harsh and bitter tone. This prompted me to reread American Power and the New Mandarins, Chomsky's first book of political writing. It seemed to me that if anything, Chomsky was harsher and more excoriating when he was younger. Not that it matters: even if he was bitter, that wouldn't prove him wrong.
Brociner doesn't try to explain why Chomsky was wrong about US motives in Bosnia and Kosovo -- he just knows, dogmatically, that the US "finally did the right thing", and for the right reasons. Chomsky doesn't merely "pronounce," he always marshalls evidence for his arguments and claims, and he documented that the NATO bombing was a cause of Serbian atrocities, not a response to them, and that NATO anticipated this result. If Brociner objects to what Chomsky says, he needs at least to point to evidence that supports his position, not indulge in name-calling.For example, when the Clinton administration finally did the right thing by intervening in order to stop Milosevic’s brutal aggression in Bosnia (1995) and Kosovo (1999), Chomsky adopted positions that assigned such sinister motives to NATO that they crossed over into a form of demonization.
According to Chomsky the U.S.-led NATO intervention in Bosnia was really driven by the interests of “wealth and power.” As for Kosovo, Chomsky pronounced that “in brief, it was well understood by the NATO leadership that the bombing was not a response to the huge [Serbian] atrocities in Kosovo, but was their cause, exactly as anticipated.” (Monthly Review, Sept. 2008)
Brociner continues:
Fast forward to the 2008 presidential election and we hear a similarly dogmatic—and cynical—reaction from Chomsky. “So, every year, the advertising industry gives a prize to, you know, to the best marketing campaign of the year. This year, Obama won the prize. Beat out Apple company. The best marketing campaign of 2008. Which is correct, it is essentially what happened.”First of all, it happens to be true that Barack Obama's presidential campaign won an Advertising Age award for marketer of the year, beating out Apple Computers. So who's cynical, Chomsky or the advertising mavens who anointed Obama as one of them? Nor was Chomsky being dogmatic: he explained in detail (via Distant Ocean) why he said what he did, and what he meant by it. If Brociner objects, he needs to construct an argument, not call Chomsky names. But that would be, like, hard.
Second, if Brociner wants to lump Chomsky together with "purists" who "sit on the sidelines as a presidential election hung in the balance because the Democratic nominee wasn’t progressive enough", he's in error, to put it as gently and neutrally as I can. Chomsky has always urged leftists to vote in elections, including Presidential elections, and 2008 was no exception. Even when the differences between the candidates are small, as they were in 2004 and 2008, "given the magnitude of U.S. power, ‘small differences can translate into large outcomes.’” This is an utterly pragmatic, non-dogmatic position, and a fairly well-known one, since numerous leftists have criticized Chomsky for it. But evidently Ken Brociner is unaware of it, perhaps because it clashes with his shrill, dogmatic rhetoric. Or maybe he just considers it unacceptable to express any doubts whatever about the candidate to which a liberal, progressive, or leftist has hitched his or her star.
Brociner takes the same tack with Naomi Klein; I'll leave the dissection of his critique as an exercise for the reader.
He concludes his piece with a ringing peroration.
In order to effectively move forward, we’ll need to reject any and all dogma—wherever and whomever it may come from. By doing so, we’ll be in a better position to understand the nuances of the obstacles and opportunities that we will be facing in the critical years ahead.Ouch. That is some bad writing, but I agree with him this far: it's always a good idea to reject dogma, including the dogmas of people like Ken Brociner.
But How Many Divisions Does He Have?
Brociner praises "progressives" for having "approached politics in a principled and pragmatic manner" in the past year. They didn't make any third-party moves, and better yet, progressives resisted the "temptation of political purists to sit on the sidelines as a presidential election hung in the balance because the Democratic nominee wasn’t progressive enough."
In short, the unrestrained progressive activism during the campaign signals a weakening of the dogma that has previously stifled the left. To build on this momentum, we should do all we can to further minimize both doctrinaire thinking and shrill rhetoric within our ranks. By doing so, we’ll be able to enhance our movement’s ability to communicate with the American public.As I said, Brociner writes badly, tossing a fine salad of clichés: "doctrinaire thinking," "shrill rhetoric," "enhance our movement's ability to communicate with the American public" (as though liberals and progressives weren't part of the American public). Judging by the articles listed in the sidebar, "dogma" is one of Brociner's cusswords. And "unrestrained progressive activism"? Where did that come from? What does it even refer to, in the context of the Obama campaign, which harnessed the energy of many progressives in the service of a center-right candidate? Oh, I don't know... "unrestrained" sounds so cool, like an ad for tampons or feminine hygiene spray; it's marketing talk, not argument.
Brociner begins his article by exulting, "Liberals, progressives and leftists worked their tails off to help elect Barack Obama—and this time we won!" Did "we"? What exactly did "we" win? Yes, "our" candidate was elected, but he's given nothing back to the "liberals, progressives and leftists" who worked their tails off to help elect him. His advisors and cabinet appointees are overwhelmingly right-wing, with the notable exception of Hilda Solis, who's under attack from the Republicans for her pro-labor stance. (There's a good article on Solis at the In These Times site. The author thinks that the Republican attacks won't succeed in blocking her appointment. I hope he's right; Obama has already backed down on support for contraception in his economic stimulus plan, under attack from the usual Republican suspects.) Brociner sounds like a sports fan to me, happy because "we" -- the corporate-owned team he roots for -- won. After his victory, Obama moved quickly and decisively to reward his corporate and party supporters; he has not been so generous to liberals, progressives, and leftists.
(P.S. February 1: It turns out that it isn't the Republicans who are blocking Solis' nomination in committee; it's the Democrats, with Obama's encouragement.)
Argument generally is in short supply in Brociner's piece. All is not well in Progressiveland, for "even progressive icons can, at times, have a negative influence on the movement’s ideological understanding of the world." Brociner has a bone to pick with two such "icons", Noam Chomsky and Naomi Klein.
He begins by praising Chomsky in a way that strongly suggests he knows him only as an icon; he doesn't seem to have read his writings much.
One of Chomsky’s many strengths has been his uncanny ability to deconstruct propaganda and, in doing so, expose the hypocritical—and often criminal—nature of our government’s actions.
Chomsky has often complained about fans who think he "deconstructs" anything, claiming in his endearing Old-Left Philistine way that he doesn't even know what "deconstruct" means. Well, neither does Brociner. As Chomsky has always insisted, what he does is nothing particularly complex or technical; he just reads a lot and pays attention to what he reads, much as the journalist I. F. Stone used to do.
However, while Chomsky’s biting skepticism towards practically everything that emanates from official sources is generally on target, his bitterness, has at times, come to cloud his better judgment. Furthermore, his writings all too often tend to convey an overly conspiratorial view of world politics.
Ah, "bitterness." Numerous people have accused Chomsky of such things. I've been trying to track down a review of one his books in The Nation, from the 1990s I believe, which lamented that while the great man had been on-target during the Vietnam era, as time went on and he was ignored by the Powers That Be, his work took on a harsh and bitter tone. This prompted me to reread American Power and the New Mandarins, Chomsky's first book of political writing. It seemed to me that if anything, Chomsky was harsher and more excoriating when he was younger. Not that it matters: even if he was bitter, that wouldn't prove him wrong.
Brociner doesn't try to explain why Chomsky was wrong about US motives in Bosnia and Kosovo -- he just knows, dogmatically, that the US "finally did the right thing", and for the right reasons. Chomsky doesn't merely "pronounce," he always marshalls evidence for his arguments and claims, and he documented that the NATO bombing was a cause of Serbian atrocities, not a response to them, and that NATO anticipated this result. If Brociner objects to what Chomsky says, he needs at least to point to evidence that supports his position, not indulge in name-calling.For example, when the Clinton administration finally did the right thing by intervening in order to stop Milosevic’s brutal aggression in Bosnia (1995) and Kosovo (1999), Chomsky adopted positions that assigned such sinister motives to NATO that they crossed over into a form of demonization.
According to Chomsky the U.S.-led NATO intervention in Bosnia was really driven by the interests of “wealth and power.” As for Kosovo, Chomsky pronounced that “in brief, it was well understood by the NATO leadership that the bombing was not a response to the huge [Serbian] atrocities in Kosovo, but was their cause, exactly as anticipated.” (Monthly Review, Sept. 2008)
Brociner continues:
Fast forward to the 2008 presidential election and we hear a similarly dogmatic—and cynical—reaction from Chomsky. “So, every year, the advertising industry gives a prize to, you know, to the best marketing campaign of the year. This year, Obama won the prize. Beat out Apple company. The best marketing campaign of 2008. Which is correct, it is essentially what happened.”First of all, it happens to be true that Barack Obama's presidential campaign won an Advertising Age award for marketer of the year, beating out Apple Computers. So who's cynical, Chomsky or the advertising mavens who anointed Obama as one of them? Nor was Chomsky being dogmatic: he explained in detail (via Distant Ocean) why he said what he did, and what he meant by it. If Brociner objects, he needs to construct an argument, not call Chomsky names. But that would be, like, hard.
Second, if Brociner wants to lump Chomsky together with "purists" who "sit on the sidelines as a presidential election hung in the balance because the Democratic nominee wasn’t progressive enough", he's in error, to put it as gently and neutrally as I can. Chomsky has always urged leftists to vote in elections, including Presidential elections, and 2008 was no exception. Even when the differences between the candidates are small, as they were in 2004 and 2008, "given the magnitude of U.S. power, ‘small differences can translate into large outcomes.’” This is an utterly pragmatic, non-dogmatic position, and a fairly well-known one, since numerous leftists have criticized Chomsky for it. But evidently Ken Brociner is unaware of it, perhaps because it clashes with his shrill, dogmatic rhetoric. Or maybe he just considers it unacceptable to express any doubts whatever about the candidate to which a liberal, progressive, or leftist has hitched his or her star.
Brociner takes the same tack with Naomi Klein; I'll leave the dissection of his critique as an exercise for the reader.
He concludes his piece with a ringing peroration.
In order to effectively move forward, we’ll need to reject any and all dogma—wherever and whomever it may come from. By doing so, we’ll be in a better position to understand the nuances of the obstacles and opportunities that we will be facing in the critical years ahead.Ouch. That is some bad writing, but I agree with him this far: it's always a good idea to reject dogma, including the dogmas of people like Ken Brociner.
Cult of Personality
I respect her feelings, but something is wrong when adults (and as a college student old enough to vote, she was and is an adult) can't even conceive of a difference between their feelings about a person and their judgment of his or her conduct. This seems to be a basic human trait, though; I'm beginning to realize that what I consider a basic necessity is for most people an ability to be gained, if at all, only slowly and painfully, with regret that it's even necessary. It's so much nicer and easier simply to judge people by their cuteness or lack of it, by their accent, by their shared fascination with this or that Saturday-morning children's tv show, by the color of their skin, by the way they dress or walk or wear their hair.
One reason I've always liked online discussion is that you get to know people only by their words and, ahem, ideas. It took me a while to figure out that for most people, this is a major downside. It especially seems to bother people who are used to getting their way either by being cute and charming, or by being threatening. Suddenly the physical presence they've always relied on doesn't work any more. Wink! Grin! Twinkle! Menace! Loom! Argh! What's the matter with this thing?
It took me a while to figure out that, as I mentioned once before, many of the political / intellectual writers I follow know each other in person, and underlying their debates with one another is their personal friendships and enmities. Which, of course, they're entitled to -- they're only human, after all -- but it sometimes introduces undercurrents and weirdnesses in their published writing that interfere with their argument and analysis. I am still haunted by the memory of mentioning to a friend a scholar of Judaism I'd been reading with interest. Her response: "Oh, I've heard he's really hard to get along with!" I was boggled. What does that have to do with his scholarship? I'll never meet him; nor, as far as I know, did my friend. But gossip takes precedence, I guess.
So, of course, I've been working my way around to our new God-King, Barack Obama. As I've said before, I suspect I would like him if I ever met him. (Weirdly, over the past few weeks I've had several dreams in which he was a character.) But that had nothing to do with how I voted, or how I'm going to evaluate his presidency. For many people, though, it's all that matters. I decided to write this posting after I found a comment on another blog by someone who found it "amazing to feel such closeness--true 'intimacy' with the occupants of 1600 Penn..." Even if she does (and I think it's a self-deluding fantasy), so what? A good many Americans felt "true 'intimacy'" with George W. Bush and his lovely family, or with Sarah Palin and hers.
Still, I admit to a slight, infinitesimal sense of inner conflict. My friend Anne Haines mentioned at her blog that
Later on, I watched an online video of the Obamas dancing at one of the balls -- not the ballroom dancing with each other, but cutting loose a bit and dancing with the crowd. And there was Barack, big as life, DOING THE BUMP.... with a teenaged girl who asked him to, it turned out when I found a clip.
It's true, Obama is a good dancer, if a bit too contained. (On the other hand, can you imagine the corporate media's reaction if he'd let loose and done something fancy?) I wouldn't mind dancing with him myself. And it was sweet to see him dance with the girl; I'm sure she'll tell her grandchildren about it. But a few days later, Obama was killing children in Pakistan and Afghanistan. He's talked about how he'd feel if his daughters were killed by Palestinian missiles; but what if they were killed by US missiles, fired at the orders of the President of the United States?
Then there's this photo. Had I known before that Obama is a southpaw?
(But then, so is McCain; and so were Ford, Reagan, Bush I, and Bill Clinton. The horror ... the horror... ) That gives me a sense of fellow-feeling with him. Intimacy, though? Huh-uh. He also used that hand to sign the orders that killed civilians a few days later.
Finally, there's this photo by White House photographer Pete Souza:
Such a likable man, really. But he's taken on a job that enables him, requires him to do horrible things, and he's shown no hesitation about doing them.
Cult of Personality
I respect her feelings, but something is wrong when adults (and as a college student old enough to vote, she was and is an adult) can't even conceive of a difference between their feelings about a person and their judgment of his or her conduct. This seems to be a basic human trait, though; I'm beginning to realize that what I consider a basic necessity is for most people an ability to be gained, if at all, only slowly and painfully, with regret that it's even necessary. It's so much nicer and easier simply to judge people by their cuteness or lack of it, by their accent, by their shared fascination with this or that Saturday-morning children's tv show, by the color of their skin, by the way they dress or walk or wear their hair.
One reason I've always liked online discussion is that you get to know people only by their words and, ahem, ideas. It took me a while to figure out that for most people, this is a major downside. It especially seems to bother people who are used to getting their way either by being cute and charming, or by being threatening. Suddenly the physical presence they've always relied on doesn't work any more. Wink! Grin! Twinkle! Menace! Loom! Argh! What's the matter with this thing?
It took me a while to figure out that, as I mentioned once before, many of the political / intellectual writers I follow know each other in person, and underlying their debates with one another is their personal friendships and enmities. Which, of course, they're entitled to -- they're only human, after all -- but it sometimes introduces undercurrents and weirdnesses in their published writing that interfere with their argument and analysis. I am still haunted by the memory of mentioning to a friend a scholar of Judaism I'd been reading with interest. Her response: "Oh, I've heard he's really hard to get along with!" I was boggled. What does that have to do with his scholarship? I'll never meet him; nor, as far as I know, did my friend. But gossip takes precedence, I guess.
So, of course, I've been working my way around to our new God-King, Barack Obama. As I've said before, I suspect I would like him if I ever met him. (Weirdly, over the past few weeks I've had several dreams in which he was a character.) But that had nothing to do with how I voted, or how I'm going to evaluate his presidency. For many people, though, it's all that matters. I decided to write this posting after I found a comment on another blog by someone who found it "amazing to feel such closeness--true 'intimacy' with the occupants of 1600 Penn..." Even if she does (and I think it's a self-deluding fantasy), so what? A good many Americans felt "true 'intimacy'" with George W. Bush and his lovely family, or with Sarah Palin and hers.
Still, I admit to a slight, infinitesimal sense of inner conflict. My friend Anne Haines mentioned at her blog that
Later on, I watched an online video of the Obamas dancing at one of the balls -- not the ballroom dancing with each other, but cutting loose a bit and dancing with the crowd. And there was Barack, big as life, DOING THE BUMP.... with a teenaged girl who asked him to, it turned out when I found a clip.
It's true, Obama is a good dancer, if a bit too contained. (On the other hand, can you imagine the corporate media's reaction if he'd let loose and done something fancy?) I wouldn't mind dancing with him myself. And it was sweet to see him dance with the girl; I'm sure she'll tell her grandchildren about it. But a few days later, Obama was killing children in Pakistan and Afghanistan. He's talked about how he'd feel if his daughters were killed by Palestinian missiles; but what if they were killed by US missiles, fired at the orders of the President of the United States?
Then there's this photo. Had I known before that Obama is a southpaw?
(But then, so is McCain; and so were Ford, Reagan, Bush I, and Bill Clinton. The horror ... the horror... ) That gives me a sense of fellow-feeling with him. Intimacy, though? Huh-uh. He also used that hand to sign the orders that killed civilians a few days later.
Finally, there's this photo by White House photographer Pete Souza:
Such a likable man, really. But he's taken on a job that enables him, requires him to do horrible things, and he's shown no hesitation about doing them.
CUT FOR IT.
MP3: "Obsessions" (Pink Stallone Crush) - Marina & The Diamonds
What makes a parent?
So I was fascinated by last week's LA Times story about the Kincaid project, which involved DNA testing of 147 people named Kincaid. Two brothers discovered they had a different biological father, something they find too painful to discuss. The article quotes studies that suggest 4% of children are not the biological children of the man they consider their father. One man, Don Severs, was able to confirm that his great-great-great-grandfather was a Kincaid who had an affair with the family's housekeeper, who was then married off to a man named Severs. DNA testing can also uncover relatives who were never told they were adopted.
If we DNA tested every child, we would know at birth whether the mother's husband was the child's genetic father. We don't do this. That alone shows that we value some things above biology, and rightly so. At a recent symposium, I asked Brigham Young law professor Lynn Wardle whom he would consider the father of a child born to a married woman but not her husband's biological child. I posed the question with the assumption that the husband wants to raise the child as his own and the biological father wants to raise the child as well. His answer: the husband. He's not going to say that of course for a married or otherwise partnered same-sex couple. But once we set the stage for parenthood based on function, relationship, or anything not biology, we open the door for what the children of same-sex couples already know: biology is neither necessary or sufficient for parenthood.
Long bond rally time!
I previously noted a good shorting opportunity in the long bond (tradable ETF proxy ticker TLT). I think we're due for a trend change and any shorts (I did not take this trade) should be covering now if they haven't already. To the charts, yo.
First, the TLT chart (5 minute short term chart):
Next, the short-term chart of the 10-year government bond yield, which is not truly the "long" bond (this title is a slang term for the 30-year bond):
Remember that U.S. government debt will hold up OK during a deflationary storm, particularly on the short end of the curve, due to a flight to perceived safety. Bonds are a risky long-term play in the event of a currency crisis and have such low yield that a CD may be just as good as a cash equivalent. I shouldn't have to tell you that I hold gold instead...
No hooking last week at all
Important gold and gold stock day
Gold broke a trend line over the past two trading days and has now met up with an older trend line:
Gold stocks were down today despite gold being up for the day and look wobbly and tired (probably from altitude sickness after 100-200% gains over the last few months):
This divergence between gold stocks and the price of gold is often a great clue to a trend reversal at the end of a bull run and is a signal (never used in isolation, of course) to take profits on longs or go short whether we're talking gold itself or gold stocks. The chart below is a 5 minute intra-day chart over the past few days with the GLD ETF [black and red candlestick plot on the chart] used as a proxy for gold price and the GDX ETF [black line plot] used as a proxy for gold stocks:
Anyhoo, I couldn't resist the bait and went short NEM (Newmont) via put options for a quick (likely less than 2 weeks) trade. I previously shorted NEM for a quick 35% profit back in early January, so why not do it again? After this correction, which may take us into mid-February, it will be time to load the boat with gold and gold stocks for the fantastic spring '09 rally.
I am in this to make money first, so I am happy to short or go long anything that I think can make me money. I love gold and gold stocks, but I will short the hell out of either if I think I can make some good money. Gold stocks are volatile and this means big gains in either direction when a move is made. I still strongly believe gold and gold stocks are the best (and only!) buy and hold investments out there for the next few years, but I use gold stocks as trading vehicles and keep physical gold (i.e. real cash money that actually requires effort to produce and is scarce) as my portfolio's bedrock (i.e. only accumulate and never trade).
NPWP & Fiskal 2009
New rule of fiskal.. oh myyy God !
Okay i better to speak in both language here because some expatriate need this info too.. tapi bahasa indonesia dulu aje kali yee...
Akhir tahun kemaren hiks ada rules baru soal Fiskal yang bikin gue rada panik.. secara gue dulu bebas gratis keluar masuk negara tercinta ini hiks hiks.. sekarang wajib memiliki nomor NPWP.
Tiap bulan gaji gue udah dipotong buat NPWP cuma gue gak punya nomornya huehehueheu.. seperti layaknya jutaan umat manusia di Indonesia ini.. jadi terhenyak-lah gue (hueheh bahasanya !) ketika diwajibkan memiliki NPWP kalo gak bayar FISKAL.
Ini loh hasil pers release dari kantor pajaaakkk:
Press Release ttg fiskal LN per 1 Januari 2009 s/d 31 Desember
2010
Siaran Pers dari Direktorat Jenderal Pajak atas "Orang Pribadi Yang Tidak Memiliki NPWP Wajib Bayar Fiskal Luar Negeri"
Hal penting yang harus diketahui adalah :
1. Tarif Fiskal Luar Negeri ( FLN ) adalah Rp 2.500.000 (pesawat udara ), Rp 1.000.000 ( angkutan laut )
2. Pengecualian dari kewajiban membayar FLN bagi OP yang bertolak ke LN dibedakan atas :
yang bebas otomatis yang bebas dengan Surat Keterangan Bebas FLN (SKBFLN )
Tatacara pelaksanaan, dibagi menjadi 4 yaitu :
1. Bagi Yang Membayar : perlu mencantumkan Nama dan NPWP Penanggung Pajak karena pembayaran fiskal luar negeri ini merupakan pembayaran dimuka PPh ps 25 yang menjadi Kredit Pajak bagi WP OP maupun Badan.
2. Bagi yang Bebas Otomatis : tidak perlu mengurus SKBFLN.
3. Bagi Yang Bebas Karena Memiliki NPWP : tidak perlu mengurus SKBFLN.
4. Bagi Yang Bebas karena SKBFLN : perlu mengurus SKBFLN.
Bagi Pegawai (tidak termasuk istri dan anak) yang melakukan perjalanan dinas harus membayar FLN dengan mencantumkan Nama dan NPWP Perusahaan sebagai penanggung pajak dan merupakan Kredit Pajak Perusahan.
Okehhh... kalo mau baca yang lengkapnya ada disini nih.. aturan akhir dari FISKAL yang dikeluarkan kantor pajak.
Jadi berburu2lah yang suka jalan2 untuk mendaftarkan diri anda ke kantor Pajak terdekat untuk mendapatkan nomor NPWP.
Secara online juga bisa kok, masuk aja ke situs kantor pajak di sini nih dan langsung aja registrasi. Trus isi deh semua aplikasinya. Di print trus di bawa ke kantor pajak ya.. lengkap dengan fotokopi KTP sama KK untuk istri atau anak-anak dibawah umur 21 tahun.
Nah kebetulan adik gue bulan kemaren buat NPWP, secara umur dia 21 tahun, tapi masih kuliah dan belum punya kerjaan.. nah gimana tuh ?
Jadi dia buat NPWP sendiri tapi penghasilannya dibuat nol. Alias gak Ada, jadi dia udah jadi wajib pajak secara umur udah 21 tahun, tapi berhubung belon ada yang bisa di pajakim jadi dia punya nomor doank !
Cara kedua adalah melalui kartu keluarga.. rada riskan sebab belon pernah dicoba hehehe...
Buat nerangin kalo "tersangka" adalah anggota keluarga yang masih sekolah dan belon punya penghasilan, jadi masih nebeng sama nomor NPWP mak gue (yang bekerja sebagai pegawai negri).
Oh ya.. pegawai negri atau polisi juga mesti punya looh NPWP sendiri..mak gue sewot setengah mate waktu gue jelasin.. secara dia mau pensiun tahun ini.. lah.. kaga ada biayanya apa salah
Mak gue bikin NPWP 2 minggu sebelum berangkat, dan gak apa-apa tuh... gak ada bayaran tambahan.. paling juga kalo ada yang minta uang gitu.. itu petugasnya yang mau nilep uang.. hehe jangan di kasih ya.. jangan dibiasain ! (kasih gue ajhaa..hehe).
nya... hehe berhubung dia mau ke Malaysia jadi dah buat dan trada ! satu hari selesai kok.. gak ada biaya sama sekali !
Dan satu lagi yang penting.. mau kartunya dari kertas warna biru kek.. mo yang warna oranye/kuning kek..yang plastik yang kertas itu sama aja.. yang penting nomornya.. semua "laku" kok di counter fiskal di airport ato pelabuhan.
Terkadang ada juga isu2 kalau umur NPWP itu harus 1 bulan sebelum keberangkatan.. hehehe... salaaahhhh. Yang diminta adalah paling kurang 3 hari sebelum keberangkatan harus udah punya nomor NPWP.
Jadi kalo mau keluar negri jangan lupa ya.. bawa foto copy kartu NPWP sama fotocopy KTP dan untuk yang bawa anak2 dibawah umur 21 tahun jangan lupa bawa fotocopy kartu keluarga.
Jadi yang pertama di airport, check in dulu ke counter flight kita, trus pergi ke counter FISKAL dan tunjukin passport, boarding pass, sama fotocopy surat2 yang tadi aku sebutin, paling bagus siapin dari rumah ye.. sebab jarang tuh aku liat di airport ato pelabuhan ada mesin fotocopy...
Udah deh.. tinggal ke bagian imigrasi buat stempel passport.. hehe trus ? hehe tinggal tunggu aja dia tuang tunggu ..browsing menikmati wifi (ghaaaaayaaa !)
Met jalan2 yaaakk ! (holeh-holehnya jhangan lhupaa!)
KSS - an even juicier short this time
I shorted the retailer Kohl's (KSS) a few weeks ago for a quick 25% profit using put options. I got out of the trade without waiting for a bigger gain, which proved lucky, as the stock came back. It is now a juicier short than ever and I couldn't resist buying a boatload of put options today while the stock was in the high 39 range.
This chart is short-o-licious:
This ratio chart (KSS divided by $RLX as a retail sector proxy) also shows how much KSS has been outperforming other retailers:
Anyhoo, I'm in big and looking for a quick score over the next 1-2 weeks.
Minitrue, Minipax, Miniluv
Okay, credit where credit is due. Like so many other people, I was pleased that President Obama plans to close Guantanamo, though I also agree with Michael J. Smith: "How we would laugh at some foreigner seeking our approval with this kind of initiative. Ahmadinejad: Okay, I'll stop hanging gay guys.... Next year. But this year -- hoo-ha! Line 'em up and keep 'em coming!" And I was pleased that Obama has forbidden torture, though with Chris Floyd I notice that he actually limited "the overt use of torture to the torture techniques approved of by the Pentagon -- although his own intelligence supremo, Dennis Blair, refuses to say if "waterboarding" should be considered torture, and assures Congress that he will examine 'whether certain coercive techniques have been effective'; i.e. which torture techniques should be continued." All this, "while leaving alone the Pentagon's numerous and far worse gulag centers -- where thousands of Terror War captives languish without charges, representation, or the slightest legal recourse." Too many people on the left still believe that the US didn't torture before Bush came along, and that if we could just put the Bush years down the memory hole, the US would have an admirably high moral character, and once again be the beacon of freedom, a light unto the nations. (Oh wait, that's Israel.)
I was also pleased that Obama rescinded Bush's gag rule on abortion for clinics that receive US funding, though I wonder what he'll do to prevent what he criticized as "a back and forth debate that has served only to divide us." As usual where US politics are concerned, I hadn't noticed much "debate" on this or any other issue, though Obama promised to start a "conversation" about it. Should this sort of matter be subject to Presidential decree in the first place? Bush the Elder initiated the gag rule, Clinton rescinded it, Dubya replaced it, and now Obama has rescinded it again. That's not a "debate," as Obama called it, but power politics. People's lives around the world should not depend (though they do, I know) on the vagaries of American voters.
There've been some intriguing reports (via) that Obama dropped his touchy-feely bipartisan mask in meetings with Republican congressional leaders who tried to dictate some features of the economic stimulus package. "I won," he reminded them. Even better, he told them (via) that "You can't just listen to Rush Limbaugh and get things done." And I wouldn't be So Gay if I didn't also point and giggle and say rude things about House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH)'s complaint, "You know, I'm concerned about the size of the package." We all have our little insecurities.
But I'm not pleased, to put it mildly, that Obama promptly began killing people. (And dammit, Chris Floyd beat me to the title I'd thought of for this posting.) Just dusky foreigners, mind you, of no great concern to right-thinking Americans; and it was really no surprise given the man's belligerence, expressed in speech after speech during the election campaign, but that's no excuse for anti-Americanism! We may not be perfect, but our virtues greatly outweigh our defects, especially now that we have this inspiring, shiny-new President!
Nor am I pleased by Obama's pronouncement on the Israel-Palestine conflict. It's the same old lies -- as Noam Chomsky said on Democracy Now!, it's basically the Bush administration's position, though that should be no surprise by now. Obama treated Palestinian deaths and Israeli as if they were equivalent (instead of the 100-to-1 ratio that actually obtained), demanded that the Palestinians relinquish their right to self-defense without making similar demands of Israel, and spoke as though Palestinian Authority President Abbas (whose term of office expired on January 9 but refuses to step down, claiming that he has the authority to extend his term, not that that bothers Obama) spoke for all Palestinians. In a move worthy of the Ministry of Truth, Obama simply erased the fact that Hamas is the democratically-elected government of Palestine.
Of course, Obama here shares the attitudes of most of the American elite. John Caruso pointed out this reality-challenged headline from the Washington Post: "Battered Gaza Still In the Grip Of Hamas." (There seems to be general acknowledgment that the Israeli massacres increased Hamas' popularity among Palestinians.) And let's not forget Israeli elites, such as the former air force colonel also quoted by John Caruso: “When you have a Palestinian kid facing an Israeli tank, how do you explain that the tank is actually David and the kid is Goliath?"
(Photo from The Distant Ocean)
Minitrue, Minipax, Miniluv
Okay, credit where credit is due. Like so many other people, I was pleased that President Obama plans to close Guantanamo, though I also agree with Michael J. Smith: "How we would laugh at some foreigner seeking our approval with this kind of initiative. Ahmadinejad: Okay, I'll stop hanging gay guys.... Next year. But this year -- hoo-ha! Line 'em up and keep 'em coming!" And I was pleased that Obama has forbidden torture, though with Chris Floyd I notice that he actually limited "the overt use of torture to the torture techniques approved of by the Pentagon -- although his own intelligence supremo, Dennis Blair, refuses to say if "waterboarding" should be considered torture, and assures Congress that he will examine 'whether certain coercive techniques have been effective'; i.e. which torture techniques should be continued." All this, "while leaving alone the Pentagon's numerous and far worse gulag centers -- where thousands of Terror War captives languish without charges, representation, or the slightest legal recourse." Too many people on the left still believe that the US didn't torture before Bush came along, and that if we could just put the Bush years down the memory hole, the US would have an admirably high moral character, and once again be the beacon of freedom, a light unto the nations. (Oh wait, that's Israel.)
I was also pleased that Obama rescinded Bush's gag rule on abortion for clinics that receive US funding, though I wonder what he'll do to prevent what he criticized as "a back and forth debate that has served only to divide us." As usual where US politics are concerned, I hadn't noticed much "debate" on this or any other issue, though Obama promised to start a "conversation" about it. Should this sort of matter be subject to Presidential decree in the first place? Bush the Elder initiated the gag rule, Clinton rescinded it, Dubya replaced it, and now Obama has rescinded it again. That's not a "debate," as Obama called it, but power politics. People's lives around the world should not depend (though they do, I know) on the vagaries of American voters.
There've been some intriguing reports (via) that Obama dropped his touchy-feely bipartisan mask in meetings with Republican congressional leaders who tried to dictate some features of the economic stimulus package. "I won," he reminded them. Even better, he told them (via) that "You can't just listen to Rush Limbaugh and get things done." And I wouldn't be So Gay if I didn't also point and giggle and say rude things about House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH)'s complaint, "You know, I'm concerned about the size of the package." We all have our little insecurities.
But I'm not pleased, to put it mildly, that Obama promptly began killing people. (And dammit, Chris Floyd beat me to the title I'd thought of for this posting.) Just dusky foreigners, mind you, of no great concern to right-thinking Americans; and it was really no surprise given the man's belligerence, expressed in speech after speech during the election campaign, but that's no excuse for anti-Americanism! We may not be perfect, but our virtues greatly outweigh our defects, especially now that we have this inspiring, shiny-new President!
Nor am I pleased by Obama's pronouncement on the Israel-Palestine conflict. It's the same old lies -- as Noam Chomsky said on Democracy Now!, it's basically the Bush administration's position, though that should be no surprise by now. Obama treated Palestinian deaths and Israeli as if they were equivalent (instead of the 100-to-1 ratio that actually obtained), demanded that the Palestinians relinquish their right to self-defense without making similar demands of Israel, and spoke as though Palestinian Authority President Abbas (whose term of office expired on January 9 but refuses to step down, claiming that he has the authority to extend his term, not that that bothers Obama) spoke for all Palestinians. In a move worthy of the Ministry of Truth, Obama simply erased the fact that Hamas is the democratically-elected government of Palestine.
Of course, Obama here shares the attitudes of most of the American elite. John Caruso pointed out this reality-challenged headline from the Washington Post: "Battered Gaza Still In the Grip Of Hamas." (There seems to be general acknowledgment that the Israeli massacres increased Hamas' popularity among Palestinians.) And let's not forget Israeli elites, such as the former air force colonel also quoted by John Caruso: “When you have a Palestinian kid facing an Israeli tank, how do you explain that the tank is actually David and the kid is Goliath?"
(Photo from The Distant Ocean)