Greece - Preview of the World to Come
The chart says it better than I can, but let's be clear: Greece is simply the first stock market to reflect reality. It is not the exception, it is the canary in the coal mine. Here's a 4 year weekly candlestick chart of the Greek stock market ($ATG) thru Friday's close with a plot of the Euro currency index ($XEU) below:
As Spain, Portugal, Italy and others get set to follow the same path, the contagion will be as contained as subprime mortgages were. Ignoring the message of the Greek stock market is the same as ignoring the Kreditanstalt bank failure and England leaving the Gold standard in 1931. Cash is king if you're not into speculating on bad outcomes. However, no paper debt-backed currency is safe when desperate apparatchiks and central bankstaz seek a way out of the debt morass. Currency devaluation by market forces or by government decree is coming to every major economy in the world. Get some real cash - get physical Gold held outside the financial system.
My prediction is that the second half of 2010 is going to be ugly for paperbugs and that the carnage is going to begin before June ends. Gold may or may not correct 10-15% or so this summer, but if it does, buy it! I am holding out for better prices in Gold stock indices for now as I focus on scaling into large short positions on the stock market. I already own puts on commercial real estate but holding out for a slightly higher short-term high in the $RMZ index (695 level) before adding more. Waiting for the 1110 level in the S&P 500 before scaling into puts against it, but if we get to this level, I will start loading up aggressively. In my opinion we are on the threshold of a scary return to the secular bear market in debt-backed financial assets, which is far from over. Be careful out there.
The Beautiful Killers
It's reasonably entertaining to watch him fillet the interviewer, who lobs one bit of Israeli propaganda after another at him, only to have him shoot them down. It's also a reminder that Chomsky's a Zionist, a point of which Chomsky's fans can hardly be ignorant since it's a well-known part of his origin story that he was planning to make aliya but became a linguist instead. I suspect that many of Chomsky's fans are as selective and self-deceiving in their knowledge of his positions as, say, many of Barack Obama's fans are of his.
I've seen a flurry of links lately to some articles scoring Chomsky for opposing boycotts and divestment from Israel, yelling He's totally a Zionist, comrades! The word "duh" comes to mind. If there are Chomsky dittoheads who follow Chomsky's opinions and recommendations without question, so much the worse for them. I wouldn't object to being called a Chomsky fan, but I've disagreed with him before, many other people who are basically on the same side have disagreed with him. (One of the pleasures of reading his book-length dialogue with Gilbert Achcar, Perilous Power: The Middle East and US Foreign Policy: Dialogues on Terror, Democracy, War, and Justice, is that Achcar doesn't hesitate to disagree with Chomsky on important points, and Chomsky debates him back without rancor or hysteria.) I take Chomsky seriously enough to listen to his arguments, and I agree with him more often than not, but I don't feel any obligation to follow him slavishly, and I don't feel constrained to go along with him on (say) the boycott of Israel.
One writer accused Chomsky of dismissing disagreement with "contempt," which is probably true, but so what? Contempt isn't Guantanamo, it isn't Bagram, it isn't Gaza, it isn't even being sent to bed without your supper. If his contempt is the worst Chomsky's critics have to deal with, they're getting off easy in world-political terms, and if it intimidates them, they are just dittoheads and should be dismissed with contempt.
And the boycott is, I believe, going to be more important than ever in the wake of Israel's latest atrocity, an attack in international waters on the Freedom Flotilla, a peaceful aid mission to Gaza, killing at least ten people (Democracy Now! says at least 15) and injuring more, following up with the shameless lies we've come to expect from the Light of the Nations. (I myself am impressed at the chutzpah involved in Israeli complaints that when the storm troopers swarmed onto the boat, they were attacked with sticks and knives, small-arms fire, or even people "speaking Arabic" -- clear evidence of anti-Semitism, I suppose. Even if they are telling the truth for once [and they've got video], why shouldn't the flotilla defend itself?) I've already sent e-mail to the President and my Congressman -- phone calls and snail mail are not really feasible from East Asia -- and I urge everyone to do the same sort of thing. Pressuring the Obama administration and the US Congress to put real pressure on Israel is probably a lost cause, but writing and calling are one place to start. Support the boycott -- Elvis Costello just canceled a concert in Israel in solidarity with it -- or not, if you disagree. But think about what is going on, and do what you think right.
The Beautiful Killers
It's reasonably entertaining to watch him fillet the interviewer, who lobs one bit of Israeli propaganda after another at him, only to have him shoot them down. It's also a reminder that Chomsky's a Zionist, a point of which Chomsky's fans can hardly be ignorant since it's a well-known part of his origin story that he was planning to make aliya but became a linguist instead. I suspect that many of Chomsky's fans are as selective and self-deceiving in their knowledge of his positions as, say, many of Barack Obama's fans are of his.
I've seen a flurry of links lately to some articles scoring Chomsky for opposing boycotts and divestment from Israel, yelling He's totally a Zionist, comrades! The word "duh" comes to mind. If there are Chomsky dittoheads who follow Chomsky's opinions and recommendations without question, so much the worse for them. I wouldn't object to being called a Chomsky fan, but I've disagreed with him before, many other people who are basically on the same side have disagreed with him. (One of the pleasures of reading his book-length dialogue with Gilbert Achcar, Perilous Power: The Middle East and US Foreign Policy: Dialogues on Terror, Democracy, War, and Justice, is that Achcar doesn't hesitate to disagree with Chomsky on important points, and Chomsky debates him back without rancor or hysteria.) I take Chomsky seriously enough to listen to his arguments, and I agree with him more often than not, but I don't feel any obligation to follow him slavishly, and I don't feel constrained to go along with him on (say) the boycott of Israel.
One writer accused Chomsky of dismissing disagreement with "contempt," which is probably true, but so what? Contempt isn't Guantanamo, it isn't Bagram, it isn't Gaza, it isn't even being sent to bed without your supper. If his contempt is the worst Chomsky's critics have to deal with, they're getting off easy in world-political terms, and if it intimidates them, they are just dittoheads and should be dismissed with contempt.
And the boycott is, I believe, going to be more important than ever in the wake of Israel's latest atrocity, an attack in international waters on the Freedom Flotilla, a peaceful aid mission to Gaza, killing at least ten people (Democracy Now! says at least 15) and injuring more, following up with the shameless lies we've come to expect from the Light of the Nations. (I myself am impressed at the chutzpah involved in Israeli complaints that when the storm troopers swarmed onto the boat, they were attacked with sticks and knives, small-arms fire, or even people "speaking Arabic" -- clear evidence of anti-Semitism, I suppose. Even if they are telling the truth for once [and they've got video], why shouldn't the flotilla defend itself?) I've already sent e-mail to the President and my Congressman -- phone calls and snail mail are not really feasible from East Asia -- and I urge everyone to do the same sort of thing. Pressuring the Obama administration and the US Congress to put real pressure on Israel is probably a lost cause, but writing and calling are one place to start. Support the boycott -- Elvis Costello just canceled a concert in Israel in solidarity with it -- or not, if you disagree. But think about what is going on, and do what you think right.
WON'T COME HOME AGAIN.
MP3: "So This Is Goodbye" (Pink Ganter Remix) - William Fitzsimmons
Change I Don't Believe In
No president has really done very much for the American Negro, though the past two presidents have received much undeserved credit for helping us. This credit has accrued to Lyndon Johnson and John Kennedy only because it was during their administrations that Negroes began doing more for themselves. Kennedy didn't voluntarily submit a civil rights bill, nor did Lyndon Johnson. In fact, both told us at one time that such legislation was impossible. President Johnson did respond realistically to the signs of the times and used his skills as a legislator to get bills through Congress that other men might not have gotten through. I must point out, in all honesty, however, that President Johnson has not been nearly so diligent in implementing the bills he has helped shepherd through Congress.Of the ten titles of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, probably only the one concerning public accomodations -- the most bitterly contested section -- has been meaningfully enforced and implemented. Most of the other sections have been deliberately ignored.
...
I'm sure that most whites felt that with the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, all race problems were automatically solved. Because most white people are so far removed from the life of the average Negro, there has been little to challenge this assumption. Yet Negroes continue to live with racism every day.
--Martin Luther King, Jr., A Testament of Hope, 1969
As many obstructionists have said smugly, You can't eradicate racism (or male chauvinism or homophobia) by passing laws against it. That's true, though once laws have been passed the same obstructionists will say: Okay, game over, you've got equality, now go home and shut up. Social movements also may try to bring about change by extra-legal means: picketing, boycotts, argumentation, and just plain getting up in the face of bigots who put their bigotry out on the street for everyone to see. It's not surprising that Sullivan and other "classical liberals", who prefer people to be isolated individuals, would object to organizing, solidarity, social pressure, advocacy, and other approaches. Not everyone has to join a movement, of course. But it's important to remember that you can't bring about social change by legislation alone; my difference with Sullivan and his ilk is that I don't think other methods are illegitimate.
Change I Don't Believe In
No president has really done very much for the American Negro, though the past two presidents have received much undeserved credit for helping us. This credit has accrued to Lyndon Johnson and John Kennedy only because it was during their administrations that Negroes began doing more for themselves. Kennedy didn't voluntarily submit a civil rights bill, nor did Lyndon Johnson. In fact, both told us at one time that such legislation was impossible. President Johnson did respond realistically to the signs of the times and used his skills as a legislator to get bills through Congress that other men might not have gotten through. I must point out, in all honesty, however, that President Johnson has not been nearly so diligent in implementing the bills he has helped shepherd through Congress.Of the ten titles of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, probably only the one concerning public accomodations -- the most bitterly contested section -- has been meaningfully enforced and implemented. Most of the other sections have been deliberately ignored.
...
I'm sure that most whites felt that with the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, all race problems were automatically solved. Because most white people are so far removed from the life of the average Negro, there has been little to challenge this assumption. Yet Negroes continue to live with racism every day.
--Martin Luther King, Jr., A Testament of Hope, 1969
As many obstructionists have said smugly, You can't eradicate racism (or male chauvinism or homophobia) by passing laws against it. That's true, though once laws have been passed the same obstructionists will say: Okay, game over, you've got equality, now go home and shut up. Social movements also may try to bring about change by extra-legal means: picketing, boycotts, argumentation, and just plain getting up in the face of bigots who put their bigotry out on the street for everyone to see. It's not surprising that Sullivan and other "classical liberals", who prefer people to be isolated individuals, would object to organizing, solidarity, social pressure, advocacy, and other approaches. Not everyone has to join a movement, of course. But it's important to remember that you can't bring about social change by legislation alone; my difference with Sullivan and his ilk is that I don't think other methods are illegitimate.
Compare, Contrast, Liquefy
Or rather, re-posted, since it's evidently another one of those chain texts that people pass along. It took me less than a minute to read it, and only twenty-five muscles to start typing up this post.A Soldier is missing their family while caring for yours. In the minute it takes you to read this, Soldiers all over the world are saving lives. It's Military appreciation week....Repost if you are a Military, love a Military member, hold memories of a Fallen Hero or appreciate the Military
I wonder if this person noticed that the word "American" is missing from the text. Would she agree that Taliban soldiers are saving lives? Soldiers are "all over the world", right? I didn't think about it right away myself, because my blood pressure went right up at "saving lives." Yeah, right.
Militaries don't save lives, they take lives. Can Americans be excused for ignoring this basic fact just because it's Memorial Day there? Anyway, General McChrystal said he was heartbroken, and the perpetrators have received letters of reprimand; the President says he takes civilian deaths very seriously. Remember, it's about us, it's all and only about us.The US military has reprimanded six operators of an unmanned drone, which mistakenly attacked a civilian convoy in Afghanistan killing at least 23.
Warnings that the convoy was not an attacking force were ignored or played down, while the ground-force commander was not sure who was in the vehicles, an investigation found.
The deadly assault took place in Uruzgan Province in February.
Civilian deaths in strikes have caused widespread resentment in Afghanistan. ...
The commander of the international forces in Afghanistan, Gen Stanley McChrystal, said letters had been issued reprimanding four senior and two junior officers in Afghanistan.
He said: "Our most important mission here is to protect the Afghan people; inadvertently killing or injuring civilians is heartbreaking and undermines their trust and confidence in our mission.
"We will do all we can to regain that trust."
The botched strike happened despite Gen McChrystal's introduction of much tougher rules of engagement in a bid to minimise such casualties.
Compare, Contrast, Liquefy
Or rather, re-posted, since it's evidently another one of those chain texts that people pass along. It took me less than a minute to read it, and only twenty-five muscles to start typing up this post.A Soldier is missing their family while caring for yours. In the minute it takes you to read this, Soldiers all over the world are saving lives. It's Military appreciation week....Repost if you are a Military, love a Military member, hold memories of a Fallen Hero or appreciate the Military
I wonder if this person noticed that the word "American" is missing from the text. Would she agree that Taliban soldiers are saving lives? Soldiers are "all over the world", right? I didn't think about it right away myself, because my blood pressure went right up at "saving lives." Yeah, right.
Militaries don't save lives, they take lives. Can Americans be excused for ignoring this basic fact just because it's Memorial Day there? Anyway, General McChrystal said he was heartbroken, and the perpetrators have received letters of reprimand; the President says he takes civilian deaths very seriously. Remember, it's about us, it's all and only about us.The US military has reprimanded six operators of an unmanned drone, which mistakenly attacked a civilian convoy in Afghanistan killing at least 23.
Warnings that the convoy was not an attacking force were ignored or played down, while the ground-force commander was not sure who was in the vehicles, an investigation found.
The deadly assault took place in Uruzgan Province in February.
Civilian deaths in strikes have caused widespread resentment in Afghanistan. ...
The commander of the international forces in Afghanistan, Gen Stanley McChrystal, said letters had been issued reprimanding four senior and two junior officers in Afghanistan.
He said: "Our most important mission here is to protect the Afghan people; inadvertently killing or injuring civilians is heartbreaking and undermines their trust and confidence in our mission.
"We will do all we can to regain that trust."
The botched strike happened despite Gen McChrystal's introduction of much tougher rules of engagement in a bid to minimise such casualties.
Message: I Care
Whatever It Is I'm Against It disassembles the press conference here, and quotes some weird Presidential jokes, or attempts at jokes, here. Tain't funny, McGee. And:
P.S. The Field Negro does an excellent job of talking back to the President; too bad the White House isn't listening.
Message: I Care
Whatever It Is I'm Against It disassembles the press conference here, and quotes some weird Presidential jokes, or attempts at jokes, here. Tain't funny, McGee. And:
P.S. The Field Negro does an excellent job of talking back to the President; too bad the White House isn't listening.
Gold Denigration Persists
This screen capture of a recent set of headlines at Yahoo Finance caught my eye:
Of course, the actual article in the link (see it here for yourself) from the screen capture above was titled "Why I Don't Trust Gold," by a mediocre to subpar paperbug "analyst" by the name of Brett Arends from the Wall Street Journal.
I find it amusing that mainstream financial sources would actually take the time out to call an asset class "ridiculous," going so far as to intentionally mischaracterize the already dubious content of the article. Imagine Bloomberg calling stocks or real estate (as asset classes) a ridiculous investment! Of course, to be fair, under the glaring "ridiculous" headline are two articles related to Gold that are not disparaging. We are no longer in the "stealth" phase of this secular Gold and Gold stock bull market. You couldn't find 3 articles about Gold within a daily set of mainstream financial headlines 5 years ago.
The Gold bull market has much further to go in both time and price. The groundwork continues to be laid for a mania phase. We have a Gold bubble or we don't get another bubble for a while. There are no other reasonable candidates on the horizon. The Dow to Gold ratio will reach 2 and may well go below 1 this cycle.
It is an impossible concept for the brainwashed herds to comprehend. How can an ounce or two of Gold ever possibly buy the whole Dow? And even if it can, Spam has more utility according to Nouriel Roubini. Only if the world is coming to an end could Gold reach such relative heights, and in that case, who cares?
Of course, the world wasn't coming to an end in 1932 or 1980, though the fear was palpable and the Gold lust was intense and overblown. It will happen again. No need for the world to come to an end, just a cycle of human fear and greed that has been around a lot longer than the current crew of "modern" financial drones. Those outside of Wall Street tend to forget that life can and does go on with or without them.
It irritates me to see Gold denigrated because I know it is keeping otherwise rational folks from protecting themselves by buying physical Gold. However, at the same time, I love to see the persistent hatred of Gold in the mainstream media for selfish reasons. Because I can assure you, when the time comes, the mainstream financial press will cheerlead for Gold like it was Pets.com in 1999. They will encourage Gold ownership at the worst possible time and cause a contribute to a mad stampede that could cause the Gold price to quadruple in less than a year.
And I hope Gold bulls can accept that the speculative frenzy will eventually get so overblown that it will cause the Gold price to subsequently collapse on itself once speculation has exhausted itself. I am not saying Gold can't back money again, but every bull market gets overdone to the point where it requires a secular bear to correct the excesses. You can't have it one way and not the other. Let's worry about it more when the time draws near, however. We're still a long way from this point.
First the herd got burned in stocks, next they will get burned in government debt, and finally they will get burned in Gold. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Those fed up with the stock market should move directly to Gold on the next Gold price correction and skip the intermediate step of government debt. Most won't, though. They will follow the herd into the next financial abattoir. The real bubble continues to be in government debt, the perfect bubble because none of the participants even recognize it.
Now, remember that most bubbles can take a heckuva lot longer to pop than you think. I have watched so many inflationists call for the imminent breakdown in government bonds, yet U.S. debt remains in an unequivocal bull market. In fact, Gold and U.S. debt are really the only secular bull markets left standing! The difference is that the U.S. debt secular bull is mature and provides only the potential for capital preservation (assuming one is not using leverage, there is negligible opportunity for capital appreciation). In other words, in return for an almost zero yield, non-traders are taking on an unacceptable risk of the bubble popping and destroying their savings.
Gold, on the other hand, is at the threshold of the most exciting part of its secular bull market. The risk in Gold is $100-200/oz to the downside with an upside potential of $1000-4000/oz, and potentially more! Gold denigration persists for now. Paperbugs feel "ridiculous" for missing the boat and are projecting their psychological angst onto the shiny investment their paper princes told them to ignore. Wouldn't you be mad if you were a buy and hold investor in common equities over the past decade?
Gold is acting and will continue to act as a currency. It is the backbone of the current international paper monetary scam (I mean system), whether you understand this or not. Gold will be revalued much higher in current paper debt ticket terms. If the markets won't do it (and I think they will), the same people and organizations now sponsoring chrysophobia will decree the Gold price higher (under the threat of force if needed) and make more money off the revaluation than 99.9% of Gold bulls.
Who Owns the Gold in Ft. Knox ? - Lew Rockwell and Judge Napolitano on Freedom Watch
Ludvig von Mises Institute Chair Lew Rockwell on auditing the Federal Reserve
Who Owns the Gold in Ft. Knox? - Lew Rockwell and Judge Napolitano
I'm going to GayDays Disney!
I'm going to GayDays Disney!
Come Over and Help Us
I have seen a lot of clips of Secretary of State Clinton grandstanding on Korean TV in the past few days, announcing that an independent inquiry had established North Korean guilt, which to me is as good as a confirmation of the North's innocence. Korean friends and some articles I've looked at in the Hankyoreh inform me that there is room for doubt. One friend told me today that it's normal around election time for the ruling party to stir up anxiety about North Korean aggression. Similar incidents have been happening ever since the Korean War ended in truce in 1953, but more people died (about 46) when the Cheonan sank, and it providentially occurred close to the elections, which made it useful for exploitation. On the other hand, the Lee administration's shutdown of economic activity with the North is hurting businesses in the South:
Businesses commissioned for inter-Korean processing and trade were up in arms Tuesday following President Lee Myung-bak’s announcement of plans to halt inter-Korean trade in response to the sinking of the Cheonan. The companies charged that the government’s measures “are killing South Korean businesses, not North Korea.” With the government’s focus lying solely on punishing North Korea, the abrupt announcement gave no time for small and mid-sized companies to prepare a retreat, and despite what is effectively a compulsory measure, almost no government compensation plan has been put in place. ...I suspect that measures like this may hurt the ruling party at the polls next week.
For the most part, the companies commissioned to do processing plan their production six to seven months in advance, so a lot of the raw materials are already in North Korea," said an official who attended the Unification Ministry’s talk Tuesday. "If the goods that are currently being produced, or even those that are already finished, cannot go in, then it tarnishes the image not only of the businesses, but also of the company, since they are unable to deliver to the foreign contracting company, and of the state."
I've also learned from the Hankyoreh that President Lee Myung-bak and "a number of cabinet members" did not complete their compulsory military service. That surprised me, because not completing one's service is supposed to be a serious disability for men in South Korea. But evidently it hasn't stood in Lee's way. On the other hand, his record may partially explain his desire to appear tough toward Japan and North Korea; we have such men in US public life too, known as "war wimps" and "chicken hawks."
I was sitting on a bench in COEX Mall yesterday, writing in my notebook, when a Korean man about my age, dressed in suit and tie, noticed me and stopped to chat. "Is that English?" he asked about my writing. I admitted that it was.
After asking me the usual biographical questions -- where was I from, what brought me to Korea, what did I do back home in America -- he asked what I thought about the sinking of the Cheonan. Didn't I think that America would help Korea, as Mrs. Clinton had promised? I made a face, and told him I wouldn't rely too much on American promises. What, he asked, is she a liar? She is, I told him, and so is Obama: think of what they have said about Iran and numerous other countries. Besides, didn't he remember that in the Korean Civil War, the US had promised to help the South if the North attacked -- yet when that attack happened, there was no help until the South was almost entirely conquered?
He conceded that unhappily, but then he brightened and declared that there was nothing to worry about, because the North is very weak. There is no danger that they could do much damage to the South. I thought about that for a moment, then asked him why, if the North is so harmless, President Lee and the Americans are saying that the North is a deadly threat? That took him aback too. We chatted for a few moments more, and then we shook hands and he went on his way.
Myself, I don't believe that North Korea is as weak as this man claimed; that was just normal nationalistic boasting on his part. I believe that they could do a lot of damage in the South before they were stopped. It chills me to think of what war would do to the beautiful country I'm visiting, and to its people. Interestingly, it's China that is pressing for caution and patience now -- they don't want war on the Korean peninsula either, so close to their own borders. It's easy for the Americans to say "Let's you and him fight" -- the fight would take place far away from us.
P.S. From the Hankyoreh:
I'd call that a healthy attitude. We could do with more of it in the US.In a survey conducted Saturday by Research Plus at the behest of the Hankyoreh, 59.9 percent of those surveyed say they do not trust the military’s statements issued on the findings of its investigation into the sinking of the Cheonan. Only 34.9 percent say that they trust the military officials. Some 57.9 percent also said that the ruling government has not responded effectively to the stinking of the Cheonan, while only 34.3 percent said they think the government has carried out an effective response.
Come Over and Help Us
I have seen a lot of clips of Secretary of State Clinton grandstanding on Korean TV in the past few days, announcing that an independent inquiry had established North Korean guilt, which to me is as good as a confirmation of the North's innocence. Korean friends and some articles I've looked at in the Hankyoreh inform me that there is room for doubt. One friend told me today that it's normal around election time for the ruling party to stir up anxiety about North Korean aggression. Similar incidents have been happening ever since the Korean War ended in truce in 1953, but more people died (about 46) when the Cheonan sank, and it providentially occurred close to the elections, which made it useful for exploitation. On the other hand, the Lee administration's shutdown of economic activity with the North is hurting businesses in the South:
Businesses commissioned for inter-Korean processing and trade were up in arms Tuesday following President Lee Myung-bak’s announcement of plans to halt inter-Korean trade in response to the sinking of the Cheonan. The companies charged that the government’s measures “are killing South Korean businesses, not North Korea.” With the government’s focus lying solely on punishing North Korea, the abrupt announcement gave no time for small and mid-sized companies to prepare a retreat, and despite what is effectively a compulsory measure, almost no government compensation plan has been put in place. ...I suspect that measures like this may hurt the ruling party at the polls next week.
For the most part, the companies commissioned to do processing plan their production six to seven months in advance, so a lot of the raw materials are already in North Korea," said an official who attended the Unification Ministry’s talk Tuesday. "If the goods that are currently being produced, or even those that are already finished, cannot go in, then it tarnishes the image not only of the businesses, but also of the company, since they are unable to deliver to the foreign contracting company, and of the state."
I've also learned from the Hankyoreh that President Lee Myung-bak and "a number of cabinet members" did not complete their compulsory military service. That surprised me, because not completing one's service is supposed to be a serious disability for men in South Korea. But evidently it hasn't stood in Lee's way. On the other hand, his record may partially explain his desire to appear tough toward Japan and North Korea; we have such men in US public life too, known as "war wimps" and "chicken hawks."
I was sitting on a bench in COEX Mall yesterday, writing in my notebook, when a Korean man about my age, dressed in suit and tie, noticed me and stopped to chat. "Is that English?" he asked about my writing. I admitted that it was.
After asking me the usual biographical questions -- where was I from, what brought me to Korea, what did I do back home in America -- he asked what I thought about the sinking of the Cheonan. Didn't I think that America would help Korea, as Mrs. Clinton had promised? I made a face, and told him I wouldn't rely too much on American promises. What, he asked, is she a liar? She is, I told him, and so is Obama: think of what they have said about Iran and numerous other countries. Besides, didn't he remember that in the Korean Civil War, the US had promised to help the South if the North attacked -- yet when that attack happened, there was no help until the South was almost entirely conquered?
He conceded that unhappily, but then he brightened and declared that there was nothing to worry about, because the North is very weak. There is no danger that they could do much damage to the South. I thought about that for a moment, then asked him why, if the North is so harmless, President Lee and the Americans are saying that the North is a deadly threat? That took him aback too. We chatted for a few moments more, and then we shook hands and he went on his way.
Myself, I don't believe that North Korea is as weak as this man claimed; that was just normal nationalistic boasting on his part. I believe that they could do a lot of damage in the South before they were stopped. It chills me to think of what war would do to the beautiful country I'm visiting, and to its people. Interestingly, it's China that is pressing for caution and patience now -- they don't want war on the Korean peninsula either, so close to their own borders. It's easy for the Americans to say "Let's you and him fight" -- the fight would take place far away from us.
P.S. From the Hankyoreh:
I'd call that a healthy attitude. We could do with more of it in the US.In a survey conducted Saturday by Research Plus at the behest of the Hankyoreh, 59.9 percent of those surveyed say they do not trust the military’s statements issued on the findings of its investigation into the sinking of the Cheonan. Only 34.9 percent say that they trust the military officials. Some 57.9 percent also said that the ruling government has not responded effectively to the stinking of the Cheonan, while only 34.3 percent said they think the government has carried out an effective response.
Explore Pulau Komodo Island National Park
Komodo National Park located between two islands that is Pulau Sumbawa and Pulau Flores. That Pulau Komodo is the biggest island in this national park besides Pulau Padar and Pulau Rinca with total wide area 1917 Km2 .
by ramadhani
Gold May Rise to $3,000 in Several Years Rosenberg Says
One More Push?
I have moved my focus to shorting the stock market. I have been buying puts on the triple bullish commercial real estate ETF (ticker: DRN). I will buy more if we go higher in the $RMZ index (695 in this index is my next buy point). I may grab some puts on the triple bullish SP500 ETF (ticker: UPRO) if we get a little higher (at 1110 on the S&P 500, I'll be interested). I think we are in for a big move down here.
I have been following the copper:Gold ratio closely (using the copper ETF JJC and Gold ETF GLD as proxies for charting purposes). It helped me see a short-term bottom coming and I think it will help call the next turn down as well. It is one of only many indicators and cannot be used in a vacuum (man, don't we all wish it was that easy!). To me, one more short-term push in this ratio is needed before the correction "looks" complete. Here's an 8 month 60 minute intra-day chart of this ratio (i.e. JJC:GLD) thru part of today's action with my thoughts:
This would fit with the US Dollar heading quickly back towards its 50 day moving average and one last pop higher in Gold and Gold stocks. I don't think this calm/short-term uptrend is going to last much longer. I also don't anticipate a small drop lower once this very short-term uptrend completes. I wouldn't be playing with napalm (i.e. options on triple levered ETFs) if I didn't think this was a juicy risk to reward set-up.
I am looking to accumulate a boatload of puts on any further move higher in stocks and I am looking to get out of paper Gold and Yamana Gold (short-term trades) on the next short-term leg up. I won't touch my physical Gold until the Dow to Gold ratio gets to 2 (and we may well go below 1 this cycle) and I will be looking to buy more physical Gold if we have a decent correction into the summer.
Two Types of Faith, 2: Fire and Brimstone
Am I the only one who's getting a gigantic kick out of watching Eyjafjallajökull spit in the eye of modern technological civilization? Take that, human air travel. And this has to be the best thing I've seen so far about this spectacular demonstration of planetary poetic justice:Well, no, I don't think he was being too flippant about the disruption of air travel, though that could be because I fly only once a year at most, so I'm arguably not included in that tiny proportion of the world's population affected by the eruption. I also think that scientific hubris about "our" ability to control nature can bear to be taken down a few pegs now and then, though I'm not sure this blogger would agree with me on that.Two years? Oh god yes.While airlines hope to fly up to about half their regular schedules Monday, the potential for long-term air travel disruption still exists. Records show that the last time the Icelandic volcano stirred, in 1821, it erupted on an off for two years.
Go, Earth, go!
(If you think I'm being too flippant about all these suffering travelers or you'd just like something a little more substantive, go read George Monbiot's observations about the fact that in order to address global warming, we must drastically reduce the amount of flying we do. The point that struck me the most forcefully: "But I urge you to remember that these privations affect only a tiny proportion of the world's people. The reason they seem so harsh is that this tiny proportion almost certainly includes you.")
The first, relatively trivial thing I want to point out is how easily he falls into anthropomorphizing the volcano and the planet. This is one of the core symptoms of religion -- treating the impersonal as if it were personal. One of the reasons I insist that religion is not a discrete, separate, special creation in human culture, easily distinguishable from other areas of human thought and endeavor, is that unbelievers, even unbelieving scientists anthropomorphize too. That includes Richard Dawkins, well known for his didactic personifications of the Selfish Gene and the Blind Watchmaker. That's the trivial matter.
Not so trivial is Caruso's vindictive glee that He (Eyjafjallajökull, that is) has brought down the mighty, humbled the proud, smitten the wasteful in Coach and Economy Class with literal fire and brimstone. (His commenters joined in with hallelujahs.) As with Christians, taking this stance requires cultivating a debilitating tunnel vision. If Eyjafjallajökull was telling "us" that "we" need to fly less, what was the Earth's crust telling the Haitians? What was Hurricane Katrina telling the residents of New Orleans? What was the Cretaceous Mass Extinction telling the proud and selfish dinosaurs? (Did Earth take out a contract with an asteroid to rub them out? Pretty solid organization there.)
Every natural disaster, in this mindset, becomes a righteous act of the Biosphere, chastising its rebellious children. You can't celebrate just one; you have to account for the others. Once you've postulated that a god intervenes in our world, either by taking the BEST unto his bosom to be with him or by giving us a beautiful day after a week of rain, you can no longer claim that it doesn't intervene by killing off a quarter of a million Haitians, or by sending plagues or droughts or famines. The same goes for Mother Nature. It won't work to blame these disasters on Sinful Man with his Global Warming, partly because they occurred before human beings were a gleam in Gaia's eye, but mostly because that is the same rationalization the religious use to account for embarrassing suffering that they don't want to connect with their gods. You can't attack Pat Robertson for blaming the earthquake on the Haitians, and then praise Eyjafjallajökull for striking down the air travellers -- not if you want to see yourself as fundamentally different from Robertson.
I don't think that Caruso was all that serious, of course. He was speaking in parables for our edification, just like any other preacher. I don't mean to take him literally. But to paraphrase Gandhi, I find increasingly that I like your atheism; I do not like your atheists.
Two Types of Faith, 2: Fire and Brimstone
Am I the only one who's getting a gigantic kick out of watching Eyjafjallajökull spit in the eye of modern technological civilization? Take that, human air travel. And this has to be the best thing I've seen so far about this spectacular demonstration of planetary poetic justice:Well, no, I don't think he was being too flippant about the disruption of air travel, though that could be because I fly only once a year at most, so I'm arguably not included in that tiny proportion of the world's population affected by the eruption. I also think that scientific hubris about "our" ability to control nature can bear to be taken down a few pegs now and then, though I'm not sure this blogger would agree with me on that.Two years? Oh god yes.While airlines hope to fly up to about half their regular schedules Monday, the potential for long-term air travel disruption still exists. Records show that the last time the Icelandic volcano stirred, in 1821, it erupted on an off for two years.
Go, Earth, go!
(If you think I'm being too flippant about all these suffering travelers or you'd just like something a little more substantive, go read George Monbiot's observations about the fact that in order to address global warming, we must drastically reduce the amount of flying we do. The point that struck me the most forcefully: "But I urge you to remember that these privations affect only a tiny proportion of the world's people. The reason they seem so harsh is that this tiny proportion almost certainly includes you.")
The first, relatively trivial thing I want to point out is how easily he falls into anthropomorphizing the volcano and the planet. This is one of the core symptoms of religion -- treating the impersonal as if it were personal. One of the reasons I insist that religion is not a discrete, separate, special creation in human culture, easily distinguishable from other areas of human thought and endeavor, is that unbelievers, even unbelieving scientists anthropomorphize too. That includes Richard Dawkins, well known for his didactic personifications of the Selfish Gene and the Blind Watchmaker. That's the trivial matter.
Not so trivial is Caruso's vindictive glee that He (Eyjafjallajökull, that is) has brought down the mighty, humbled the proud, smitten the wasteful in Coach and Economy Class with literal fire and brimstone. (His commenters joined in with hallelujahs.) As with Christians, taking this stance requires cultivating a debilitating tunnel vision. If Eyjafjallajökull was telling "us" that "we" need to fly less, what was the Earth's crust telling the Haitians? What was Hurricane Katrina telling the residents of New Orleans? What was the Cretaceous Mass Extinction telling the proud and selfish dinosaurs? (Did Earth take out a contract with an asteroid to rub them out? Pretty solid organization there.)
Every natural disaster, in this mindset, becomes a righteous act of the Biosphere, chastising its rebellious children. You can't celebrate just one; you have to account for the others. Once you've postulated that a god intervenes in our world, either by taking the BEST unto his bosom to be with him or by giving us a beautiful day after a week of rain, you can no longer claim that it doesn't intervene by killing off a quarter of a million Haitians, or by sending plagues or droughts or famines. The same goes for Mother Nature. It won't work to blame these disasters on Sinful Man with his Global Warming, partly because they occurred before human beings were a gleam in Gaia's eye, but mostly because that is the same rationalization the religious use to account for embarrassing suffering that they don't want to connect with their gods. You can't attack Pat Robertson for blaming the earthquake on the Haitians, and then praise Eyjafjallajökull for striking down the air travellers -- not if you want to see yourself as fundamentally different from Robertson.
I don't think that Caruso was all that serious, of course. He was speaking in parables for our edification, just like any other preacher. I don't mean to take him literally. But to paraphrase Gandhi, I find increasingly that I like your atheism; I do not like your atheists.
Two Types of Faith: 1, Tears in Heaven
God saw you getting tired and a cure was not to beThis makes painful reading, and I'm not denying her loss, or telling her that she should feel differently. I just want to try to sort out why I find this kind of talk so disturbing.
So He put His arms around you and and whispered "come to me"
With tearful eyes I watched you, and saw you pass away
Although I loved you dearly I could not make you stay
A golden heart stopped beating, hard working hands at rest
God broke my heart to prove to me He only takes the BEST
(Repost if you have a loved one in Heaven)
Begin with "He only takes the BEST." It's obviously false. Everybody dies. People are dying all the time, all around us. I understand that grief makes it very hard to pay attention to matters outside our own painful circle, but for me the best remedy for grief is to remember that it makes me part of the human community, to look outward instead of only inward. But if Yahweh takes only the best, whoever they are, then the worst would never die. The spiritually advanced die, the corrupt die. Which makes me wonder why people say such palpably ridiculous things, and why they find them comforting.
Second, this verse isn't very flattering to Yahweh. even leaving aside the notion that "a cure was not to be", not even for an omnipotent deity who could heal the sick and raise the dead. In Greek myth, Crete imposed a tribute on Athens, requiring the best, the most beautiful, most graceful of its youth to be sent to die in the labyrinth in the jaws of the Minotaur. The Minotaur also "took the best," but no one would see this as a sign of his great goodness.
War also takes the best. It's a pious cliche to say so. Countries select only the healthy and strong young people to go to kill, die, and be maimed. People are more ambivalent about war than about their gods, but they romanticize the brave youths who die so gloriously. This may be partly a symptom of guilt, and one situation where the traditional fear of the dead could be halfway rational. Why not flatter the young people whose lives you've squandered? If there were some kind of afterlife and the dead are watching us, it might well be prudent to praise them, to appease their resentment.
"If you have a loved one in Heaven..." What about our loved ones in Hell? It isn't polite to say so, but everyone must have such people, including the most devout Christians, though they don't like to think about it. Even the very devout will, if pressed, admit that it impinges on their god's sovereignty for them to say who will or won't go to Heaven; they usually say brightly that they are just expressing a lively faith in their god's mercy. From what I've seen, Yahweh's mercy and a token will get you on the subway, but that's beside the point. These people don't know their loved ones' eternal destination; they are whistling in the dark.
Two Types of Faith: 1, Tears in Heaven
God saw you getting tired and a cure was not to beThis makes painful reading, and I'm not denying her loss, or telling her that she should feel differently. I just want to try to sort out why I find this kind of talk so disturbing.
So He put His arms around you and and whispered "come to me"
With tearful eyes I watched you, and saw you pass away
Although I loved you dearly I could not make you stay
A golden heart stopped beating, hard working hands at rest
God broke my heart to prove to me He only takes the BEST
(Repost if you have a loved one in Heaven)
Begin with "He only takes the BEST." It's obviously false. Everybody dies. People are dying all the time, all around us. I understand that grief makes it very hard to pay attention to matters outside our own painful circle, but for me the best remedy for grief is to remember that it makes me part of the human community, to look outward instead of only inward. But if Yahweh takes only the best, whoever they are, then the worst would never die. The spiritually advanced die, the corrupt die. Which makes me wonder why people say such palpably ridiculous things, and why they find them comforting.
Second, this verse isn't very flattering to Yahweh. even leaving aside the notion that "a cure was not to be", not even for an omnipotent deity who could heal the sick and raise the dead. In Greek myth, Crete imposed a tribute on Athens, requiring the best, the most beautiful, most graceful of its youth to be sent to die in the labyrinth in the jaws of the Minotaur. The Minotaur also "took the best," but no one would see this as a sign of his great goodness.
War also takes the best. It's a pious cliche to say so. Countries select only the healthy and strong young people to go to kill, die, and be maimed. People are more ambivalent about war than about their gods, but they romanticize the brave youths who die so gloriously. This may be partly a symptom of guilt, and one situation where the traditional fear of the dead could be halfway rational. Why not flatter the young people whose lives you've squandered? If there were some kind of afterlife and the dead are watching us, it might well be prudent to praise them, to appease their resentment.
"If you have a loved one in Heaven..." What about our loved ones in Hell? It isn't polite to say so, but everyone must have such people, including the most devout Christians, though they don't like to think about it. Even the very devout will, if pressed, admit that it impinges on their god's sovereignty for them to say who will or won't go to Heaven; they usually say brightly that they are just expressing a lively faith in their god's mercy. From what I've seen, Yahweh's mercy and a token will get you on the subway, but that's beside the point. These people don't know their loved ones' eternal destination; they are whistling in the dark.
US Department of State website carries info on gay and lesbian adoption
I confess that I like seeing that sentence in print. It does send a message of acceptance, even though it is a simple declarative fact. And it doesn't address the fact that international adoptions into the US are down and likely to drop more as a result of the requirements of the Hague Convention, as it is more difficult for anyone to adopt internationally. There are reasons that make it more difficult specifically for same-sex couples as well. So the State Dept website may have greater symbolic than real significance.
Commerical Real Estate - Return of the Dream Short
Shorting the market and/or being bearish on it isn't for everyone. Something about our collective psychology makes us prefer optimism over reality. If you are in that camp, you probably don't understand the message Gold is sending. Its lack of cash flow (other than the 15-20% annual gains that have eluded the paperbugs over the past decade...), its lack of relevance to the "modern financial system" (other than as the backbone of the current international paper monetary scheme...) and its volatility (i.e. much less than any paper asset class besides government bonds over the past decade...) make Gold scary to the brainwashed herd just like they are scared to be bearish on the market. For those of us who have crossed over to the other side of the matrix and actually have the audacity to buy a barbarous relic and make "evil" bets against the system, I believe the dream shorting opportunity has finally returned.
I previously successfully used the "phase shift" concept between home builders and commercial real estate to make the most profitable trade of my brief career during the Great Fall Panic of 2008. Commercial real estate is one "cycle" behind the home builders, which makes sense economically and fundamentally, although the crash in 2008 got commercial real estate caught up in a hurry. I think the phase shift concept is back in play, with a slight twist.
In looking at the ratio chart of commercial real estate (using $RMZ, the index behind the triple bull [DRN] and bear [DRV] commercial real estate ETFs, as a proxy) relative to the S&P 500 ($SPX) since 2000, you can see how overbought commercial real estate is relative to the S&P 500 (weekly log scale candlestick chart of $RMZ:$SPX since 2000):
Well, the phase shift comes back into the picture using this same ratio chart, but comparing it with a ratio of the home builders sector (using $DJUSHB as a proxy) to the S&P 500. The following is a very busy chart, but it is one I am using to make a heavy bet on the short side. I am biased since this is my own research here, but I think it is worth taking the time to decipher all the following squiggles and what they may mean for the near-term future (10 year weekly log scale ratio chart of both $RMZ:$SPX [candlestick plot] and $DJUSHB:$SPX [black linear plot]):
See the opportunity? We are not talking about a 10% move here if you think about the math required to make this ratio premise work at a time when the stock market will be falling. To scale in to the trade itself, first here's an 18 month daily chart of the $RMZ thru part of today's action to show where we are on an intermediate-term basis:
And here's a close-up of the recent action using a 4 month 60 minute intra-day chart of $RMZ:
Long Gold and short the stock market. Trying to ride the obvious secular bull trend: the Gold to Dow ratio. Because buying options on a triple levered ETF is like playing with napalm, I don't need to risk a lot of capital on the trade to make significant money if I am right on this one. You and you alone are responsible for any decisions you make, whether financial/trading or otherwise, but if you take the plunge on this juicy set-up let me know how it works out for you.
A Christian Mind
The term "rape culture," used repeatedly by the Hathor Legacy blogger, is misleading if it suggests that there is a "rape culture" distinct from the culture as a whole. As Joanna Russ wrote in 1985 (Magic Mommas, Trembling Sisters, Puritans and Perverts, The Crossing Press, page 92):
I’ve always thought that patriarchal male sexuality must be a rather difficult business. To over-simplify: A partner’s hostility or boredom is ordinarily a real turn-off – and yet this is exactly the situation under patriarchy, where so many women are not interested, not excited, not participants, and not happy. Yet men must penetrate and ejaculate if there are to be any babies – and so the problem for patriarchy (whether you think of this as a one-time invention or a constant process) is to construct a male sexuality that can function in the face of a woman’s non-cooperation or outright fear and hostility.Most women, whether they think of themselves as feminists or not, recognize this; it's part of the folklore. But it's so extreme, it's like saying that all men are rapists, isn't it? Well, no, it isn't. It's to say that our official culture structures sexual expression this way, even though not all men or women conform to the role they are supposed to play. I suspect it's because most people do not live up to official erotic and gender values that human life is at all bearable -- to the extent that it is bearable.
If you doubt that this is the case, let me present a revealing passage from a highly respectable male writer who calls for a return to traditional Christian values, Harry Blamires. Blamires is, according to Wikipedia, an Anglican theologian, literary critic, novelist, and a protege of C. S. Lewis. He's the author of a mainstream academic work on James Joyce's Ulysses. In his book The Post-Christian Mind: Exposing Its Destructive Agenda (Ann Arbor MI: Servant Publications, 1999), Blamires complained that "the need for living harmoniously in society along with people of other faiths has encouraged a pluralism that saps confidence in the imperatives of the Christian revelation" (14):
Current secularist humanism -- a mishmash of relativistic notions negating traditional values and absolutes -- infects the intellectual air we breathe. There is a campaign to undermine all human acknowledgement of the transcendent, to whittle away all human respect for objective restraints on the individualistic self. The hold of this campaign on the media is such that the masses are being brainwashed as they read the press, listen to the radio or watch TV [9].And so on. Most of the book is just this overheated. Someday I may quote and discuss more of it. But for now I want to single out one fascinating bit -- fascinating in the same sense as a car wreck: you can't look at it and you can't look away.
... The size of Victorian families indicates an uninhibited level of sexual activity. [As does the number of children sired by Victorian papas and sons on the maidservants.] It could be argued that the Victorians were much more conscious of the power of sex than we are. That could be why women were distanced from men by complex etiquettes of contact in social life. There was a time when female employees in certain respectable institutions were required to lower their eyes when conversing with male colleagues. The ethos between this distancing must surely have been based on a recognition of the compulsive force of the sexual appetite. On those grounds the Victorians would never have been so rash as to put both sexes together in comparable stations, say, on a warship. We, who have seen what doing so had led to, may perhaps concede their prudence. The Victorians seem to have believed in the need to tame sexuality and domesticate it. We find in Victorian literature the image of the virginal young woman who seems chastely remote from contact with the earthiness of procreation. She is someone in whose presence animal appetite is chilled into awe. This image, the angel in the house [!? – the angel in the house was the mother, not a virgin], was surely not the product of male minds castrated by dwelling in the world of top hats that had to be decorously lifted at the sight of a skirt. It was the product of male minds alert to the bubbling cauldron of sexuality that seethed beneath the surface of interchange between the sexes [152-153].Let me try to tease out some of the remarkable assumptions embedded in this incoherent rant. The most obvious, I suppose, is that for Blamires "the sexual appetite" is exclusively male, and it is always a hairsbreadth away from aggression. A woman who meets a man's eyes -- in "certain respectable institutions," at least, and I wonder which ones he has mind -- instead of lowering them modestly, risks setting off his hair-trigger lust. The Victorians were not the only ones who believed in the need to tame sexuality and domesticate it; so did the pagan Greeks. The early Christians agreed, but they mostly seem to have thought that the best way to tame male sexuality was total abstinence, with marriage a licit outlet for those who couldn't cut the mustard. But the Victorians seem also to have had little hope of taming the brute beast in the human male, and settled for supplying many outlets, commercial and amateur ("bad girls" of one type or another), for a man's "bubbling cauldron", so that the chaste respectable virgin may be spared his rutting violence if her icy remoteness fails to chill his animal appetite into awe.
Now, a culture based on assumptions like these will be a rape culture. Rape will be the norm, because women's own wishes and desires are not taken into account, or even noticed. The culture will represent men as ravening beasts whose lust is barely kept in check and can be set off by nothing more provocative than making eye contact. On the other hand, the lowered eyes of modesty are wonderfully stimulating: a modest woman knows she's enflaming a man, she's just being coy to entice him; she really Wants It, as all women do. If a man assaults a woman, it's because he lost the war within himself to tame his sexuality; it must have been something she did, probably deliberately, so she must have Wanted It. If too many men are losing control, then women should be confined to their homes after dark; any who go out after curfew will know that whatever happens to them is their own fault, so they must Want It too. A fortiori, if you dress up your daughter like a harlot you can hardly pretend to be surprised if some poor man decides she's signaling her sexual availability and takes her up on her offer, even she's only six years old. But even if you lock her in a barrel until she's eighteen and feed her though the bunghole, even if you cover her from head to foot in the name of "modesty," her mere femaleness makes her what the Catholics call an occasion of sin. There will be men trying to break the barrel open to take her, there will be men who will go nuts and attack her because her chador didn't conceal her enough, her sensual body language shines through like X-rays. That's just how men are.
It's worthwhile to compare Blamires's take on male sexuality with Michael Ruse's. Being a post- or at least non-Christian, Ruse lamented that women don't go into heat, because "then even if we had the same moral principles -- treat others fairly, etc. -- it would simply not make sense to condemn someone for fucking the female if he got the chance." Like Blamires, though, Ruse took for granted that men are always on a hair-trigger, ready to be set off at the mere sight of a pretty girl passing by; about women's desires he had nothing to say, apparently being ignorant of their existence and not interested in finding out.
Blamires, remember, is not a Larry Flynt or a Hugh Hefner; he's a reactionary Christian of impeccably respectable credentials. The crazy things he says do come close to normative Victorian (and pre-Victorian, as you can see by reading Shakespeare or Jane Austen; or post-Victorian, if you read Norman Mailer or John Gray) attitudes to male sexuality. Women aren't people in his Christian mind, they're symbols -- either virgins or whores. It's revealing that what he considers the Christian alternative to pervasive secular relativism looks like a scenario out of Victorian pornography.